The grain harvest in the Netherlands is proving much smaller than expected a few months ago. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has lowered its wheat harvest estimate by 10%. This also applies to winter barley, although the spring barley estimate remains unchanged.
Normally, we see the largest differences in estimates for potatoes and onions. For grains, the fluctuations between provisional and final figures are generally much smaller. This is not the case for 2025.
While the various estimates for onions are fairly consistent, and for potatoes there's a 4% difference, for grains the difference is as high as 10%. This is all the more striking because grains were harvested much earlier than onions and potatoes.
Wheat yields were estimated at over 10 tons per hectare in October. A few months later, it turned out these yields were nowhere near achieved. The national average has been adjusted to 9,2 tons per hectare. A reduction of 1 ton per hectare therefore results in a production drop of almost 10%. In addition, the harvested area is also (albeit marginally) lower.
In retrospect, it turns out that only two provinces had yields exceeding 10 tons per hectare. These were (naturally) Flevoland and – more surprisingly – South Holland. Groningen did not exceed the national average for wheat yields. Zeeland did, however, achieve above-average yields of 9,6 tons per hectare.
Same picture with barley
The picture is similar for barley, although the differences are less pronounced than for wheat. Here too, Flevoland and South Holland are the outliers, with around 9,5 tons of barley per hectare.
Nationally, the yield per hectare has been adjusted downward from 7,9 to 7,5 tons per hectare. This reduces the total gross yield from approximately 279.000 tons in the preliminary estimate to approximately 263,000 tons in the final estimate. This represents a correction of over 16.000 tons, or approximately 6%.
The cause for the barley problem lies in lower winter barley production than previously estimated. This winter variety ultimately yielded 8,6 tons per hectare, while a harvest of 9,6 tons per hectare was expected. Spring barley remains stable at 6,7 tons per hectare in the final estimate; surprisingly, this yield was accurately estimated.
Spring barley yielded the best results in South Holland, averaging 8,4 tons per hectare. The national average for this type of barley was 6,7 tons. Winter barley performed almost 2 tons better, at 8,6 tons per hectare. Flevoland and South Holland delivered the highest yields there, at 10 tons per hectare or even slightly more.