Weather developments, with snow and frost forecasts, are being closely monitored in the grain market. Currency developments also continue to play a significant role. However, prices have fallen slightly after their rally at the end of last week.
The picture on Tuesday, February 3rd, is mixed. Prices fell slightly in Paris, while Chicago saw a minimal increase. However, the differences are small. The main reason for the divergent trends lies in the exchange rates. A stronger euro is harming the export position in the EU, leading to slightly lower prices.
The March contract price fell to €193,25 per tonne in Paris on Tuesday. This still leaves the price €6 higher than the low reached at the end of last week. However, the next delivery month carries a slight premium compared to May due to the current weather conditions. The May contract fell to €191,50 per tonne.
In Chicago, wheat took a small step up to $5,28¾ per bushel. This puts the price almost 10 cents lower than at the end of last week. By European standards, the wheat price in Chicago now amounts to €165 per tonne. That's about €4 more than at the beginning of last week.
The price of the May contract in Chicago is still slightly higher than that of March. May is trading at $5,37¾ per bushel, or the equivalent of €167 per ton. New-crop wheat isn't trading as much yet, but those prices are clearly above current sales levels. September deliveries are trading at $567¾ per bushel, or €177 per ton. December is trading at $5,85¾ per bushel, or €182 per ton.
In Paris, these differences with the new harvest are much smaller. September is trading at €195,50 per tonne in Paris, barely above the current price level. December is struggling to stay just above €200 per tonne, closing at €201,75 per tonne on Tuesday. For the time being, this seems unlikely to change.
Prices on local markets in the Netherlands are stable to slightly rising. The Groningen grain exchange is raising prices for barley and wheat by €1 this week to €191 per tonne. This doesn't help the market much, as few transactions are made at this price level, according to the Groningen Quotation Commission.