Concerns about frost damage to winter grains are easing somewhat in the grain market now that the worst of the cold in both Europe and the US is behind us for now. Instead, there's more talk about the stiff competition, especially in the wheat market. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is in full swing, and threshing is ahead of last season. Rain in several key soybean provinces has brought the harvest process to a standstill.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €0,50 at €189,50 per tonne. Wheat also took a small step back on the CBoT, closing down 1 cent at $5.28¾ per bushel. Corn fell 1½ cents to $4.28¾ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest loser in the last trading session, down 4½ cents to $11.10¾ per bushel.
Concerns about a relatively strong euro against the dollar are drowning out reports of potential frost damage to winter wheat on the European market. A more expensive euro is an additional hurdle for European exporters in the global market, where buyers are already competing for favor. There is stiff competition from grain from the Black Sea region and Argentina.
Ukraine exports plummet
Grain exports from Ukraine are also not going smoothly. APK-Inform lowered its export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 10,4%, from 45,2 million tons to 40,5 million tons. Wheat exports have been reduced by 2,2 million tons to 14,5 million tons. The export forecast for maize has been lowered from 25,5 million tons to 23,5 million tons. APK-Inform expects Ukraine to export 2,0 million tons of barley, compared to 2,5 million tons in the previous forecast. Due to the lower exports, the closing stock of grain has been revised upwards significantly from 6,8 million tons to 11,5 million tons. The closing stock consists of, among other things, 4 million tons of wheat, 4,3 million tons of maize, and 2 million tons of maize. According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy, 19,38 million tons of grain have been exported so far this season, compared to 26,45 million tons in the same period last season.
APK-Inform writes that this season's lower exports are a direct consequence of the Russian bombardments of Ukraine's ports and energy infrastructure. Other sources cite, besides the war, the poor international grain market and the late harvest in parts of Ukraine as contributing factors to the export deficit. European Union restrictions on grain from Ukraine are mentioned less frequently, but some analysts believe that also plays a role.
Top harvest
On the soybean market, Trump's pronouncements about increased demand for soybeans from China are fading somewhat. At just over $11 per bushel, American soybeans are about $1 per bushel more expensive than Brazilian soybeans.
In Brazil's largest soybean-producing province, Mato Grosso, 40% of the soybean acreage has been harvested, compared to 28% this week last year. Across Brazil, 16% of the harvest has been completed, compared to 10% last week and 15% this week last year. Although the soybean harvest in Brazil is progressing well, with a record harvest of 180 million tons predicted, some analysts believe the race is not yet over for Brazilian growers. Rain over the past 48 hours in parts of Mato Grosso and Goiás, among other areas, has temporarily halted the harvest. More importantly, the rain is detrimental to the quality of the ripe soybeans.