Selling wheat is one thing, but getting it out of the country is a completely different problem for Ukrainian exporters. The Ukrainian Farmers' Union warns that sales contracts are in place, but that due to Russian attacks, the wheat is not being exported. In Europe, wheat exports are slightly ahead of last season. There is some debate among experts about the completeness of government data and statistics.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday €1 higher at 190,50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat rose more strongly, closing 9 cents, or 1,7%, higher at $5.37¼ per bushel. Corn took a step back, closing 1¼ cents lower at $4.27½ per bushel. Soybeans closed 1½ cents higher at $11.24 per bushel.
Ukraine is struggling to export grain. So far in February, 27.000 tons of wheat have been exported, while contracts are in place for 700.000 tons that are scheduled for shipment this month, writes the Ukrainian Farmers' Union (UAC). "Logistics are not in order. Ports cannot operate at full capacity due to power outages, and wheat is competing with corn, which is loaded first," the UAC writes. The power outages, which are also affecting the ports, are a direct result of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Due to logistical problems, Ukraine cannot fulfill all its wheat contracts. In January, Ukrainian exporters committed to exporting 620.000 tons, and 536.000 tons of wheat were actually exported. In December, contracts totaled 1 million tons, of which 586.000 tons were actually loaded.
Remaining harvest 2025 not yet lost
The 2025 harvest is also not yet complete in Ukraine. According to Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs, Taras Vysotskiy, approximately 7% of the sown corn area remains unharvested. He told the news website censor.net: "This is not an exceptional situation for Ukraine. It has happened more often in recent years. There is no reason to assume that the entire remaining harvest will be lost. While it is quite possible that the corn quality will deteriorate, the corn is not completely depleted."
The EU exported 13,43 million tons of wheat up to February 8, according to new figures from the European Commission. This represents a 2% increase in exports compared to the same period last season. It should also be noted that the export figures for several countries, including France, are incomplete.
Staff
Criticism of government-maintained statistics isn't exclusive to Europe. Reuters reports that several quarters are questioning the reliability of figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). President Trump is pushing for a significant reduction in the size of the federal government. Thousands of USDA employees retired, resigned, or were laid off last year. Experts fear that the shrinking workforce is hampering the ability of departments and agencies to produce accurate and timely data.
As an example, Reuters cites the significant revision to US corn acreage in January. The harvested area was increased by more than 5% compared to the initial estimate in June. Such a large adjustment so late in the season is unprecedented, according to experts, and had significant consequences for corn prices. Following the USDA's adjustment, corn futures fell by more than 5%.
Wheat closing significantly higher on the CBoT yesterday comes after the Wasde report which showed higher stocks bullish It was quite a surprise. Turnover was high at 137.811 contracts, the largest since November 3rd. The sudden increase in volume was unexpected and could be a sign that short funds (who anticipate a further downward market) have had enough of the sideways, volatile price movements and are ready to take a position that is less bearish is.