Last week, wheat prices were trending upwards. This proved to be very temporary, as this week's gains have largely been erased.
The wheat futures market in Paris closed at €190,50 per tonne on Tuesday, February 17th. This puts wheat just above €190; the level to which pricing has seemed stuck for some time. Sometimes – as now – the price is a fraction above that level, but almost as often, the price fluctuates just below that level.
Wheat prices in Chicago have been somewhat more volatile this past week than in Paris. A mid-week rebound is responsible for this. But as so often happens, sentiment quickly shifts again at the beginning of the following week. The March wheat price in Chicago fell to $5,37¾ per bushel on Tuesday. That's still almost $0,10 higher than the previous week, but $0,15 lower than last Thursday.
Since this week, trading in May contracts has dominated. While price fluctuations in this contract haven't been as significant, the difference compared to a week ago is ultimately somewhat smaller. On Tuesday, the May contract closed at €5,42½ per bushel.
A slight rise in the dollar against the euro further exacerbates the price fluctuation in Chicago when expressed in euros. The March contract rose by €4 per week to €167 per tonne. This is the highest level for the first expiring wheat contract since mid-December. The May contract is trading at €169 per tonne, €3 per tonne higher than a week ago.
The price pressure at the beginning of this week is primarily attributable to the general sentiment of large global stockpiles. This sentiment is further reinforced by the higher harvest estimate for wheat in Russia. Following consultancy Ikar, market consultancy SovEcon also issued a higher estimate.
Ikar raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2026 by 3 million tons to 91 million tons. SovEcon is more cautious, raising its estimate by 2,1 million tons, bringing it to 85,9 million tons for 2026.
Quick end to revival
These expectations are fueling traders who are anticipating falling prices. This is reflected in price developments early this week, effectively putting an end to the mid-last week rally.
There's absolutely no change on the local markets in the Netherlands this week. The Beurs Zuid (Goes) and the Graanbeurs (Grain Exchange) in Groningen are trading unanimously unchanged. Both wheat and barley are priced at €191 per tonne in Groningen. However, prices are under pressure, according to the quotations committee. Large global stockpiles are cited as the reason.