Initial forecasts for the 2026/27 season point to a slightly tighter global wheat market. The International Grain Council (IGC) reports this in a preview of the upcoming harvest.
"Although the forecasts are still very preliminary at this point, the wheat balance appears to be slightly tighter in 2026/27," the IGC states in a monthly update. According to the Council's early estimates, the global wheat harvest will be lower than in the previous season, while consumption will continue to increase. This will ultimately result in a slightly tighter balance between supply and demand.
This suggests that 2026/27 will be a season in which stocks will be less plentiful than they are this year. Based on initial assumptions about acreage and yield trends, a year-on-year decline in corn production is also expected.
The outlook for barley is mixed. The sown area may be smaller than usual due to relatively weak margins, but total production is currently estimated at the same level as last season.
The picture is different for soy. A recovery of the global soybean acreage of around 2% is cautiously expected for 2026/27, primarily due to expansion in major exporting countries.
Minor adjustment for 2025/26
For the current 2025/26 season, global grain production (wheat and coarse grains combined) is estimated at 2.460 million tons, 1 million tons lower than last month's estimate. This is mainly due to a downward revision of the barley harvest. Despite this minor correction, the volume remains historically high: 6% more than in 2024/25 and the largest ever recorded.
Total availability is up 4%, despite the tightest opening stocks in a decade. Closing stocks are estimated to be 45 million tons higher than a year earlier. Global grain trade (July/June) is expected to grow 6%, partly due to higher shipments to Asia. Total grain trade is now estimated at 449 million tons, 3 million tons more than a month ago.
The IGC maintains its wheat production forecast for 2025/26 at 842 million tons. This means production will significantly exceed consumption. Consumption this season is estimated at 823 million tons, just as in January. Nevertheless, the global stock estimate for the end of June has been lowered slightly to 282 million tons.
For corn and soybeans, changes compared to January are also minimal. Corn consumption is up slightly more than anticipated in the previous month, while the soybean production estimate is revised upwards only slightly. Combined with slightly lower consumption, stocks are up 2 million tons to 79 million tons of soybeans. This means stocks are still lower than last season.