EU holds Trump to agreement on import tariffs

The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €1 at €196 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat fell 4 cents to $5.69½ per bushel. Corn closed unchanged on the Chicago exchange at $4.27½ per bushel. Soybeans fell 3¼ cents to $11.34¼ per bushel.

Ukraine expects the wheat harvest to be 2,9% higher in 2026 than in 2025. According to a forecast by the Ukrainian agricultural lobby organization UCAB and the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy, Ukraine will harvest 23,1 million tons of wheat this year. This larger harvest is due to a 4,8% increase in the wheat acreage compared to last year, to 5,1 million hectares. The yield per hectare is estimated to be 1,7% lower. Wheat exports could rise to 17,6 million tons in the 2025/26 season. For the current 2024/25 season, Ukraine expects exports of 15,8 million tons.

The 2026 corn harvest will increase even faster than the wheat harvest, according to the organizations. Compared to last year, the harvest will increase by 11,2% to 29,9 million tons, compared to 26,9 million tons last year. Corn exports will increase less rapidly, to 23,8 million tons next season, compared to 22 million tons this season.

Temporary new import duty
The US Supreme Court's ruling last Friday declaring Trump's import tariffs illegal has created considerable uncertainty. Following the ruling, the US president initially announced a temporary 10% blanket import tariff. Trump later raised that to 15%. This new tariff, under the 1974 Trade Act, was supposed to remain in effect for a maximum of 150 days.

The European Commission appears to be taking a slightly tougher stance toward the United States. The EU is demanding "full clarity" from Washington and warned that unpredictable import duties are disrupting markets and undermining confidence, as became clear after a meeting between European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

"The current situation is not conducive to achieving 'fair, balanced and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed by both parties," said the Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states. "A deal is a deal." Under the current agreement, many EU products are subject to a 15% US import tariff. Different tariffs apply to some sectors, such as steel. Products such as aircraft and steel components are exempt from import duties.

Changeable weather in Brazil
In Brazil, there are significant differences between provinces regarding the soybean harvest, according to new figures from AgRural. Across the country, 30% of the soybean harvest has been completed, according to the market bureau. Last week, the figure was 21%, but this week last year, 39% of the soybean harvest had been threshed. In the largest soybean province, Mato Grosso, 66% of the soybean acreage has been completed, compared to 57% in the five-year average. According to AgRural, 28% of the first crop of corn has been harvested. Of the planned area of ​​corn as a follow-up crop after soybeans, for example, half has been sown. In Mato Grosso, 66% of the second crop of corn is in the ground.

According to specialists, the weather forecast for Brazil is relatively neutral for the market. A prolonged dry spell that would allow for accelerated soybean threshing is unlikely. However, the rain will not be continuous, and a little moisture is beneficial for the newly sown corn.