The chance of precipitation and higher temperatures are shifting the focus in wheat trading away from the weather risks that contributed to sharply rising prices last week. This is prompting traders to pause and take time to determine a new direction.
While fears about weather risks such as drought and frost damage may have subsided somewhat, the uncertainty surrounding the impact of US import tariffs and the threat of an American invasion of Iran are still very much present in the background. In this regard, trade is also on edge. The slightest movement on these fronts has immediate consequences for grain prices.
On Tuesday, March wheat contracts on the Paris futures market closed at €195,25 per tonne. This was a fraction below Monday's level. The number of contracts traded declined further as trading shifted towards the next contract, the May contract. The May contract also closed slightly lower than Monday at €197,25 per tonne.
Compared to a week ago, the contracts have seen a significant increase. The March contract shows an increase of around €5 per tonne compared to last Tuesday. May delivery prices have even risen by €7 during this period. Such price changes also lead to some profit taking.
Current developments are also pushing up longer-term prices. For example, the new harvest is trading above €200 per tonne. December deliveries are trading in Paris for €207,25 per tonne. Prices for the 2027 harvest are around €7 to €10 higher. Settlement prices for the 2028 harvest are close to €220, although there has been no trading at these levels in recent days.
Chicago wheat prices from the current harvest are down slightly, while subsequent harvests have risen slightly further. The March contract on the CBoT is down 2 cents to $5,67½ per bushel. May delivery is expected to drop to at least $5,73½ per bushel.
Converted to euros, futures contracts on the CBoT have seen a larger jump in value over the past week than trading in Paris. This is partly due to the dollar's appreciation. One euro is currently worth slightly less than $1,18. In previous weeks, you could get more dollars for one euro.
The March contract is trading at just under €180 per tonne, while the May contract is just above it. On a weekly basis, these prices have risen by €8 to €12 per tonne. In January, the March contract traded for just €160 per tonne.
In Chicago, prices for later terms are also higher. December 2026 is trading at the equivalent of just over €190. The December contract for the 2027 harvest is again more than €10 per tonne higher.