The combination of relatively expensive Russian wheat and logistical problems to the country is making buyers more inclined to choose EU wheat. Incidentally, there was no sign of this at the Matif yesterday. Weather problems in France and the US could provide support for the new harvest.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €2,25 at €193 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat fell 1 cents to $5.65 per bushel. Corn closed higher on the Chicago exchange, up 2 cents to $4.30 per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest gainer, up 8 cents to $11.48 per bushel.
Disruptions to shipping and a relatively strong ruble are keeping the price of Russian wheat stable. This is according to market bureau Ikar, which is keeping the price for Russian wheat unchanged from last week at $233 per tonne FOB (delivered to ship). However, reaching Russian ports is proving challenging for shipping. Shipowners are facing stormy weather in the Black Sea, and ice formation is a problem in the Caspian and Baltic Seas. There is also ice in the Sea of Azov, but ships are making their way to and from the ports in convoys, Ikar writes.
Is Europe benefiting?
According to SovEcon, some buyers are switching to EU wheat due to the combination of relatively high Russian wheat prices and challenging shipping conditions. Constanta in Romania and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria are particularly benefiting, according to the market bureau. SovEcon also raised the price for Russian wheat to $232 to $236 per tonne FOB this week, compared to $231 to $235 last week.
SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in February to reach 3,3 million tons. Ikar is slightly lower, with an expected export of 3,1 to 3,2 million tons. Russian rail carrier Rusagrotrans reports that it transported 1,8 million tons of wheat for export from February 1 to 16. SovEcon has reduced Russia's total exports for the 2025/26 season by 300.000 tons to 45,4 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, the export forecast has been increased by 2,1 million tons to 41,7 million tons.
Spring can begin
While shipping may be significantly affected by the winter weather, SovEcon reports that agriculture is not facing much of a problem. In southern Russia, the sowing of spring grains, among other crops, is about to begin. "No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. In our opinion, the ice crust on some fields does not pose a serious risk at this time. It will gradually melt as temperatures rise," SovEcon writes.
Ikar does point out weather-related problems in France and the US. The southern prairies in the US are experiencing drought and wildfires. In France, flooding is causing localized problems for winter grains for the upcoming harvest. All in all, Ikar believes this could support wheat prices in the coming period.
Jantje laughs, Jantje cries
The soybean market remains quite volatile. The lack of Chinese orders for US soybeans seemed to dampen market sentiment. However, a very brisk US export of soybean meal and problems at soybean processors in Argentina turned the tide. Argentine processors are struggling with the availability of soybeans, according to several sources. The new harvest is approaching, but the Argentine harvest typically begins in late March.
In Brazil, soybeans may perform slightly less well than previously predicted. Analyst Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean harvest forecast from 1 million tons to 178 million tons, due to poor quality and lower yields in northern Mato Grosso and dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where 50% of the crop still needs to develop pods.