Things are definitely not getting any quieter in the grain trade. The intraday range for wheat on the CBoT is striking. A difference of approximately 6% between highest and lowest prices is extreme for the wheat market. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the spring is not conducive to spring activities, and in Brazil, the soybean harvest is lagging behind the five-year average.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday down €3,75 at €195,75 per tonne. The May contract, which is the most heavily traded, closed in the green, up €1,75 per tonne, reaching €209,75 per tonne. In Chicago, wheat closed down 13 cents at $5.98 per bushel. The market was particularly volatile last trading session. In the morning, wheat rose $6.35 per bushel. A range of 37 cents in a single trading day is considered extreme. Corn closed down 9 cents at $4.37 per bushel. Soybeans remained slightly more stable than grains on the Chicago exchange, falling 4 cents to $11.80 per bushel.
The Ukrainian grain harvest for 2026 will likely be 4% lower than that of 2025, according to market bureau AKP-Inform. In 2025, 61,1 million tons of grain were harvested, and the bureau estimates the yield for the upcoming harvest at 58,1 million tons. The largest decline is in wheat. For the upcoming harvest, AKP-Inform expects 20 million tons of wheat, compared to 23,2 million tons last season. The corn harvest is estimated at 31,8 million tons, compared to 30,9 million tons last year, and the bureau estimates barley at 5,1 million tons, compared to 5,4 million tons last year.
More exports
Although the harvest will be smaller, Ukraine can export approximately 4% more grain in the 2026/27 season, according to APK-Inform. Wheat exports are estimated to be 500.000 tons lower than in 2025/26, at 14 million tons. On the other hand, 1,8 million tons more corn and 500.000 tons more barley could be exported. This would bring exports in 2026/27 to 25 million tons of corn and 2,5 million tons of barley.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs announced yesterday that spring work in the Ukrainian agricultural sector has been delayed by two weeks. In Ukraine's southern regions, farmers typically begin sowing summer crops in mid-February. However, due to ground frost and snow, farmers have not yet been able to work in the fields.
Oil
Meanwhile, the conflict in Iran continues to preoccupy people. Crude oil prices, particularly those from oilseeds like rapeseed and soybeans, are being closely watched. Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel, but ultimately closed below that level. High diesel prices could, however, provide an incentive for refineries to blend in additional vegetable oil.
The Middle East is also a major region for fertilizer production, and this is reflected in the prices of nitrogen fertilizers in particular. Growers in Asia, in particular, depend on fertilizer from this region. The Indian government announced yesterday that it will take measures to keep fertilizer available and affordable for its farmers. Among other measures, a maximum price for certain fertilizers will be set.
New markets
Russia, another major fertilizer producer, would love to fill the gap created by limited availability from the Middle East. The Kremlin aims to control a quarter of the global fertilizer trade by 2030. Several insiders in the Russian fertilizer sector told Reuters that the Russian industry is not benefiting, or only to a limited extent, from the higher prices and potential increased demand. Many fertilizer factories have obligations to domestic customers. Ukrainian attacks on Russian fertilizer factories, such as the one in Dorogobuzh on February 25, also leave little or no room to increase production.
In Brazil, growers are just over halfway through threshing soybeans. According to AgRural, 51% of the soybean acreage was threshed last Thursday, the agency announced yesterday. This week last year, 61% had been harvested. The soybean harvest in Brazil is proceeding at its slowest pace since the 2020/21 season.