Exports of European wheat are faltering due to fierce competition on the global market. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and higher costs are causing additional uncertainty. Read more about the pressure on European grain exports.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed yesterday up €2 at €206 per tonne. On the CBoT, the March contract is still open and closed up $3 cents at $5.88 per bushel. Corn rose 8 cents to $4.44 per bushel. Soybeans closed up 13 cents at $12.00 per bushel.
The grain market remains quite nervous. FranceAgriMer lowered its wheat export forecast from France to non-EU countries by 100.000 tons compared to February, to 7,1 million tons. This is the fourth consecutive month that the French government agency has lowered its export forecast. France is facing stiff competition in the global market, FranceAgriMer notes. The record wheat harvest in Argentina, among other factors, is putting pressure on the market.
For intra-EU exports, FranceAgriMer raised its forecast slightly by 10.000 tons to 7,57 million tons. In the 2024/25 season, 6,81 million tons of French wheat were exported within the EU. The closing wheat stock for the current season has been increased from 3,05 million tons to 3,39 million tons. If the forecast is correct, France would end this season with the largest closing wheat stock since the 2009/10 season, when it stood at 3,43 million tons. The closing wheat stock is approximately 37% higher than last season.
Germany expects less wheat
The German winter wheat harvest for 2026 will be 7,7% smaller than in 2025. This is the prediction of the German Association of Cooperatives (DRV) today in its first harvest forecast for the new season. The winter wheat harvest this season will amount to 20,8 million tons, compared to 22,6 million tons last season. The total wheat harvest, including spring wheat and durum, will be 3,8% lower than last season, at 22,3 million tons, according to the DRV forecast. The total grain harvest in Germany is estimated at 43,7 million tons this season, compared to 45,3 million tons last season. The rapeseed harvest will be slightly above the multi-year average for the upcoming harvest, at 4,1 million tons.
In its explanation of the figures, DRV also addresses the unrest in the Middle East. "Farmers are already under significant economic pressure due to low prices for their products, high energy and fertilizer costs, and increasing geopolitical risks. The war in the Middle East is further exacerbating the tense situation," writes Guido Seedler, grain expert at DRV. Traditionally, a relatively large amount of German wheat is shipped to the Middle East. The war in Iran and the region is making transport there more difficult. At the same time, diesel and fertilizer prices are rising. According to Seedler, a fertilizer shortage is not an immediate concern in Germany. The first fertilization has already largely been applied to the crops.
Futures market
DRV is critical of energy taxes and levies in the current climate. The CO2 tax could be temporarily suspended or reduced in this context. The union also calls for a critical review of energy taxes. Furthermore, the union calls for strengthening exports to countries outside the EU and professional risk management, for example, on futures markets. This should not only apply to the sale of grain and rapeseed, but also to the purchase of fertilizers and fuel.
Government intervention in the market should not take place under any circumstances: "Experience shows that interventions or guaranteed prices do not solve structural problems, but rather cause high follow-up costs," Seedler emphasizes.