Global wheat production is declining due to lower yields and uncertainty regarding costs and acreage. Differences between regions are increasing tension in supply and production forecasts. Read more about global wheat production 2026/27.
The FAO estimate corresponds to the assessment recently published by the International Grains Council (IGC). The Grains Council forecasts a harvest of 822 million tonnes of wheat for the coming season.
According to both estimates, wheat production will turn out lower than the current season, which ends in June. According to the IGC, production in 2025/26 will ultimately reach a new record of 845 million tonnes. The FAO sets a slightly lower target of 839 million tonnes. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) falls in between with 842 million tonnes.
All in all, this means a harvest forecast for the coming season that turns out to be around 20 million tons lower than this season. That is a significant difference. This amount is comparable to the annual wheat production in Ukraine or Germany.
However, the conflicts in the Middle East are putting pressure on the agricultural sector. Higher energy and fertilizer prices increase production costs and disrupt logistics chains. This could particularly affect wheat crops yet to be sown in the Southern Hemisphere and spring wheat in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, shrinking margins may prompt farmers to consider less fertilizer-intensive crops, which could also impact maize cultivation.
Favorable conditions in Europe
Within the European Union, wheat production is estimated at approximately 137 million tonnes, slightly lower than last year. This is due to smaller sown areas of winter wheat and a normalization of yields following the higher yields of the past year. Nevertheless, favorable weather conditions support expectations for solid yields.
In the United Kingdom, an increase to over 13 million tonnes is actually expected, thanks to a larger acreage and better yields. In Russia, a smaller acreage leads to lower production, while in Ukraine, yields remain stable at around 23 million tonnes, despite concerns about frost damage earlier this year.
Less wheat in the US
In the United States, a decline in wheat production is expected to approximately 51 million tons. This is primarily due to lower prices, fewer sown hectares, and drought in key growing areas. Canada is seeing a slight production decline to about 35 million tons based on average yields.
India, on the other hand, is heading for a record harvest of 120 million tonnes, thanks to a record number of sown hectares and favorable weather conditions. Outlook also remains stable in China and Pakistan, with production above the five-year average.
In Iran, better rainfall and improved soil moisture conditions have led to favorable crop developments, although the conflict remains a risk to the harvest. In Turkey, good winter rains and snow cover are ensuring strong yield expectations. After two dry years, wetter weather is returning to North Africa, supporting yields and production in 2026.