The wheat market is influenced by drought and oil prices, while the stronger euro is putting pressure on the export position of EU wheat. Read more about the impact of the dollar exchange rate on the wheat market.
The May contract on the futures market in Paris stabilized on Tuesday at €195,75 per ton. This puts the price about €8 lower than the average over the past month. Developments in the conflict between the United States and Iran account for the most significant share of this.
However, the dollar exchange rate is also an important factor. At the beginning of this month, the value of the euro was just under $1,15. Since then, it has risen to nearly $1,18. This has direct consequences for the competitiveness of EU wheat on the world market. A weaker dollar makes EU wheat more expensive relative to the competition.
Prices for later periods are also clearly lower than in recent weeks. New crop price for September 2026 is quoted at barely €206 per ton. This puts the price €10 lower than at the end of last month. The September quotation for the 2027 crop fell to €217,25 at the end of last week, but recovered slightly this week to €221,50 on Tuesday.
In Chicago, drought problems pushed the closing price of the May contract up by nearly 10 cents on Tuesday to $5,92 per bushel. Due to the rise, the July contract just managed to rise back above the $6 per bushel mark. Because of the weaker dollar, the increase in value in euros remains limited. Converted, the May contract has a value of €184 per ton, while the price for July is €3 above that.
Locals remain wait-and-see.
There are hardly any shifts on the regional markets in the Netherlands. International developments are creating an uncertain market, making both buyers and sellers take a wait-and-see approach. Groningen remains unchanged this week at €192 per ton. Beurs Zuid is seeing the quotation drop slightly to €179 to €185 per ton.