The ceasefire between Iran and the US remains fragile. This became evident again last weekend with attacks on merchant ships by both sides. This had an impact on the oil market and, indirectly, on the wheat market. Read more about developments on the wheat market.
The March wheat contract on the Matif closed €2,50 higher yesterday at €194 per ton. The September contract, where most trading takes place, also closed in the green, rising €2,75 to €206,75 per ton. On the Chicago exchange, wheat closed 5 cents higher at $5.97 per bushel. Corn rose 3 cents to $4.52 per bushel. Soybeans did not follow the grain trend and fell 1 cents to $11.65 per bushel.
The unrest in the Middle East remains a significant factor in the grain market. The US Navy boarded an Iranian ship last weekend, and Iran fired on merchant vessels attempting to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, the strait is blocked. This had an impact on the oil price and, indirectly, on the wheat price as well.
Via the Caspian Sea to Iran
Russia has exported wheat to Iran via the Caspian Sea for the first time in years, according to data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. In the first quarter of 2026, Russia shipped 500.000 tonnes of maize, 180.000 tonnes of feed barley, and 4.000 tonnes of wheat to Iran via the Caspian Sea. "The ports on the Caspian Sea have not exported wheat for more than eight years. The entire supply went to the Black Sea, to Novorossiysk," writes Alexander Sharov, head of consultancy firm RusIranExpo. In March, 300.000 tonnes of grain crossed the Caspian Sea, compared to virtually nothing in March 2025.
The usual route for Russian grain exports to Iran in recent years has been via the Black Sea to Iran's major grain terminals near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is the third-largest customer for grain from Russia this season. The Ikar quotation for Russian wheat has risen by $1 compared to last week to $237 per ton. Market research firm SovEcon expects Russia to export 4 million tons of wheat this month.
Wheat prices support in the US again as well
In addition to geopolitical unrest, the weather in the US is also providing some support for wheat prices. The winter wheat crop in the US has declined slightly again. This week, 30% of the acreage is rated good or excellent, according to the USDA Crop Progress report. Last week, that figure was 34%. In terms of development, winter wheat is slightly ahead of the multi-year average. Specifically, 20% of the acreage is in ear, compared to 12% in the five-year average and 14% this week last year.
American farmers are well on schedule with the sowing of spring wheat. 12% of the planned acreage has been sown, which is equal to the five-year average. This week last year, 16% of the spring wheat had been sown. 2% of the spring wheat has already emerged. The sowing of corn is also progressing reasonably well, with 11% of the planned acreage sown versus the five-year average, which stands at 9%. Real momentum has been gained with the sowing of soybeans so early in the season. 12% of this has been sown, compared to 5% in the five-year average and 7% last year. In the southern states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee, farmers are already more than halfway through the soybean season.
Last weekend, there was still some frost in large parts of the Midwest and on the prairies. It is not surprising that soybean growers further north are not yet in such a hurry to sow. (Night) frost is not exactly favorable for wheat fairly late in the season. Nevertheless, several analysts do not expect the frost to have caused much damage.