Drought inhibits wheat growth in Central and Eastern Europe

In Western Europe, particularly in France and the Benelux, wheat crops are benefiting from an early growth start and above-average biomass build-up. Mild temperatures and sufficient soil moisture have led to a head start in development. The outlook is also favorable in Spain and Portugal, partly thanks to well-filled water reserves following a wet winter period. In these regions, wheat appears to be moving towards an above-average harvest, according to the Mars crop monitor from the European Commission's JRC research institute.

In Central and Eastern Europe, however, a different picture is emerging. Since the end of winter, a large part of this region has been struggling with a precipitation deficit. Although soil moisture reserves are still sufficient for the time being, the drought is beginning to translate into slower development and increasing concerns regarding the critical growth phases of wheat, such as ear formation. The situation is particularly vulnerable in Germany, Poland, and parts of Ukraine. Without additional rain, crop condition could deteriorate rapidly.

In addition, temperature plays a dual role. On the one hand, above-average temperatures in many areas have accelerated growth; on the other hand, cold spells in April are causing local delays and minor damage. These temperature fluctuations are leading to uneven wheat development across Europe, with some fields leading the way and others lagging behind.

In Southern Europe, water poses a problem of a different order in some places. Excessive rainfall in parts of Italy and Southeast Europe has led to waterlogging and lodging of crops, including durum wheat. Although the growing season still offers room for recovery, yield potential has already been affected locally.

All in all, European wheat is looking reasonably good. In most regions, yield expectations are around or slightly above average, supported by a good start to the season. In particular, the persistent drought in parts of Europe could determine the final yield in the coming weeks.

In the April Mars report, the average wheat yield in the EU-27 this year is estimated at 5,83 tonnes per hectare. That is about 4% less than last year, but 3% more than the five-year average. Clear differences compared to previous years are particularly evident in Romania, Finland, Spain, and Belgium.

In Romania, hectare yields appear to be as much as 11% higher than the five-year average, at approximately 5 tonnes per hectare, JRC concludes based on the current crop stand. However, this is also 11% lower than the yields harvested from the land last year. A similar situation applies to Finland (3,8 tonnes per hectare) and Spain (3,56 tonnes per hectare).

In Belgium, on the other hand, all indicators are currently pointing to a better harvest. JRC estimates the yield there this year at 8,36 tonnes per hectare. That is 5% higher than average and 13% more than last year.

For wheat in the Netherlands, the European Commission's research institute is provisionally targeting a harvest of 9,25 tonnes per hectare. That is almost 1 ton less than last year, but 0,5 tonnes more than the five-year average.