The wheat market is rising due to drought in the US, while Europe is lagging behind due to moderate export demand and competition. Price differences between Chicago and Paris are widening. Read more about US and EU wheat price developments.
In the United States, wheat reached its highest level in nearly two years. Analysts point out that some of the damage may already be irreversible, especially given the advanced growth stage of the crop. Rain can provide local relief, but for some regions, it will likely come too late.
On top of this, international concerns are mounting. Production estimates for 2026/27 indicate declines in Australia (-19%) and Canada (-10%), partly due to smaller acreage and normalizing yields following strong preceding years. Higher input costs, such as fertilizers, are also playing a role in growers' restraint. This reinforces the picture of tighter global supply and provides additional support to the market in Chicago.
Competition remains fierce
Against this backdrop, the European market is moving upwards, but with somewhat less conviction. On Euronext's Matif, wheat rose to its highest level in about a month, primarily in response to the US rally and higher oil prices. Nevertheless, underlying factors continue to act as a damper in Europe. Export demand is moderate and buyers are postponing purchases, while wheat from the Black Sea region remains price-competitive.
The regional situation also plays a role. Although drought requires attention in parts of Europe, soil moisture is still sufficient for the time being. Consequently, the acute stress characterizing the American market is absent. The result: Paris follows Chicago, but without the same urgency.
On balance, a market picture is emerging in which Chicago sets the direction and Paris responds. As long as weather risks in the US remain dominant and global production expectations are under pressure, the upward dynamics will persist. The question is whether Europe will accelerate or whether inhibiting factors will further widen the gap with Chicago.
The May contract rose by €2,50 in Paris on Tuesday to €197 per ton. New crop is performing better for growers in that regard. The price of the September contract rose by €5,25 to €214,25 per ton. This increases the price difference between old and new crop to €17,25 per ton.
In Chicago, May closed 27,5 cents higher at $6,49 per bushel. The price for September 2026 rose by 28,25 cents to $6,70¾ per bushel. For contract months in 2027, prices rose to just above $7 per bushel.
As a result, prices are taking clear steps upwards. The quotation for old crop is higher in Chicago than in Paris. On the CBoT, May is quoted at the equivalent of €204 per ton, or €7 higher than in Paris. This does not yet apply to new crop, although the differences have narrowed. September 2026 is traded on the CBoT for the equivalent of €211 per ton, which is €3 lower than in Paris.
Higher local prices for new harvest
Locally in the Netherlands, there are few changes for the old crop. The Grain Exchange in Groningen stabilizes at €191 per ton. "A stable euro, large ending stocks, and positive harvest expectations are hindering grain price increases within the EU," according to the quotation committee. Beurs Zuid in Goes maintains the quotation at €178 to €183 per ton.
Middenmeer is raising the quotation for 2025 harvest wheat by €1 to €189 per ton. The price level for the new harvest is higher. New harvest wheat, delivered to the well, is quoted €6 higher than last week at €190 per ton. This brings the price back to the same level as mid-March. The low point for the new harvest was reached in mid-April at €180 per ton.