The wheat price on the Matif is slowly finding its way upwards. Although the May contract took a step back, the first contract of the new harvest rose to its highest point in a month. Relatively high energy prices and drought in the US supported the market. The Netherlands has refused six ships loaded with soybean meal from South America. Traces of genetically modified varieties, which are not permitted on the European market, were found in the soybean meal. Read more about the impact of refused soybean shipments.
The May wheat contract on the Matif closed €2,75 lower yesterday at €195,25 per ton. The first contract of the new crop, however, closed in positive territory, rising €1,75 to €217,25 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat took a small step back after the sharp rise earlier this week. The May contract closed 6 cents lower at $6.42¼ per bushel. Maize, however, was in the green, rising 1 cents to $4.66½ per bushel. Soybeans rose 9 cents to $11.82¼ per bushel.
Drought in the US and the stalemate between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz caused the first contract for the new crop on the Paris stock exchange to rise to its highest level in a month. Reuters reports this morning, citing sources at the US State Department, that the US wants to form an international coalition to get shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz moving again.
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing sources close to Trump, that the American president is taking into account the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for an extended period. The American news site Axios writes that Trump has been briefed on possible new military actions in Iran. We can conclude that the reports from the White House are somewhat contradictory.
Inflation
What we do see is that inflation is rising, primarily due to high oil prices. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) calculated that inflation in the Netherlands rose to 2,8% in April. In March, it was 2,7%. Currently, inflation is being driven by relatively high prices for petrol and diesel. Energy, including motor fuels, is 7,8% more expensive this month than in April 2025. Food, beverages, and tobacco have risen in price by 1,5% compared to April of last year.
In the US, drought on the southern prairies is a cause for concern. Significant rain fell in the Midwest and the Delta this week, but the prairies where most American wheat is grown have received no precipitation. Frost has been reported locally on the northern prairies and the northwestern Corn Belt.
The US Department of Agriculture attaché in Canada estimates the upcoming wheat harvest in Canada at 36,2 million tons. This puts the harvest at approximately 10% lower than last season. The USDA expects the lower yield to be partly due to a smaller planted area and partly to yields that will be closer to the multi-year average. For Australia, the USDA is now forecasting a wheat harvest of 29 million tons, or 19% compared to last season.
Genetic modification
There is considerable controversy in Europe regarding GMO soy meal. Earlier this week, it was announced that the Netherlands had refused entry to three ships loaded with soy meal from Argentina because traces of the HB4 gene, which is not permitted in the EU, were found in them. It has since become known that six ships are involved: four from Argentina and two from Brazil. HB4 was developed by the Argentine biotech company Bioceres and ensures that soybeans are more resistant to drought.
Gustavo Idigoras, president of the Argentine Grain Exporters Association and Soybean Crushing Industry Association (CIARO-CEC), believes the shipments of soybean meal were rejected based on a false positive test. "It is not the method that Bioceres has patented and can therefore lead to so-called 'false positives,' or incorrect detections," Idigoras told Reuters. "We think this is happening in Europe."
The Netherlands is a major port of entry for soybean meal, which subsequently disappears further into Europe. That was also the intention with the ships that were refused entry. According to sources, the soy from Argentina was intended for Belgium, Germany, and the Czech Republic, and the Brazilian soy for France, Italy, and Luxembourg.
Dependent
The EU is significantly dependent on soybean meal from Brazil and Argentina, which is primarily used in animal feed. According to the latest figures from the European Commission, the EU imported 7,4 million tonnes of soybean meal from Brazil and 5,0 million tonnes from Argentina this season. Together, these countries account for an 85% market share. By comparison, the third largest exporter is Ukraine, which exported 961.000 tonnes of soybeans to the EU this season.
Genetic modification remains a difficult subject for the EU. GMO crops may not be grown in the EU. However, GMO crops from outside the EU are permitted on the European market for use in animal feed. The variety or gene in question must, however, have approval from the European Commission. This is not the case for some drought-tolerant soybean varieties that are grown primarily in Argentina.