Wheat prices are under pressure due to profit-taking and improving weather, while unsold stocks in Europe continue to weigh down. Geopolitical calm is also weighing on sentiment. Read more about the wheat market and price pressure.
Prices for the 2025 harvest are falling in particular, but the new harvest is also being dragged down. There are still large quantities of wheat in Europe that have not been sold. This is putting pressure on the market.
On the Matif futures market in Paris, the old crop dropped to below €185 per ton around midday on Wednesday, May 6. Few contracts were traded, but it indicates that sentiment in this market has vanished. Just a week ago, the market for this wheat rose to €197 per ton.
The new crop is also taking a significant hit today. On Matif, price reductions of €3 to €4 compared to Tuesday are being recorded for later maturities. As a result, September 2026 drops to €208 per ton and is trading €6 lower than a week ago.
In Chicago, the price of the old crop has also dropped by about €10 per ton over the past week. A similar decline is visible there for the new crop. This is happening while severe drought continues in the southern wheat regions.
Damage mainly in Oklahoma
The situation is most serious in Oklahoma. Based on the current situation, a harvest half the normal level is expected there. Moreover, the crops are developing rapidly, reducing the chances of recovery.
Weather models predicting rain in parts of Europe and the US play a significant role in the falling prices. Now that the focus is less on drought stress, investors and speculators are cashing in on profits built up over the past month.
Another contributing factor is that the likelihood of escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran has decreased. This is leading to falling oil prices, which has an impact on the grain market. This effect is stronger for corn and soybeans, but also contributes to market sentiment for wheat.
Little local change
Locally in the Netherlands, there is little sign of the price pressure on the futures markets, but the market did not react to the rally at the end of last month earlier either. In a quiet market, the Grain Exchange in Groningen is quoting €1 higher for wheat at €192 per ton. Barley rises by €3 to €195 per ton.
Beurs Zuid in Goes is keeping the prices for both grains the same as last week, at €178 to €183 per ton for wheat and €175 to €180 per ton for barley.