What does the stopper regulation do with livestock and feed prices?

Is it any wonder that the scheme was oversubscribed within a day? No. A total of 500 companies representing 40.000 cattle applied for the pot of money. There is only room for 10.000 dairy cattle. This means that a maximum of 10.000 dairy cows will disappear from the Netherlands eight weeks after RVO has written to the applicants. Young cattle are also allowed to participate in the scheme and then the numbers will probably be slightly different. Slaughtering capacity is not a problem, according to the COV. 

This early in the process, prices for slaughter and sausage cows remain stable, but at a relatively low level. Prices were even lower at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015, but then you have to go back to 2011 to find such low prices. Relatively many cows are slaughtered. Up to and including week 6, 92.513 units, which represents an increase of 28,8 percent compared to a year earlier.

Add to that the livestock, which will probably be offered from March 1 in connection with the LVE scheme, and the prospects for meat prices are not good. In addition, beef can also function as a competitor for sow meat, lean meat. These prices are at a relatively high level.    

Bottom line, cows for slaughter are unlikely to become a source of fat in 2017. It is better not to expect too much from it as a supplement to the business income. Calves are more difficult to explain. After all, there will be less demand for young arrivals and the GVE scheme means you have to be careful about what is kept, but the size of the dairy cow herd will also decrease. However, it does not immediately appear that the supply of calves will decrease drastically. Prices increased again in the course of 2016, after a sharp dip at the beginning of 2016. That dip is likely to be seen again to a lesser extent this season.  

As a result of various developments, the number of beaks is decreasing. In combination with the not too generous financial position of dairy farmers and the large harvest of grass in the 2016 season, this indicates why the feed market is still relatively quiet. Straw continues to hold its price, while silage maize remains expensive mainly due to the lower harvests in Belgium and Northern France. However, by-products such as brewer's yeast are the so-called hot cakes in the market. There is an incentive to feed products that have a beneficial effect on the levels in the milk, partly motivated by the milk price.  

The price of rapeseed meal is price-bearing in the major commodities. Less oil is produced and as a result the supply of scrap is lagging behind. Especially for the Germans, who do not have a phosphate problem, but focus on being GMO-free. The price of soy remains volatile. After a decline in the third week of February, the price increases again in the run-up to the end of the month. There is still speculation about the big harvest in Brazil, but it will take quite some time. Prices for wheat and corn rose slightly again after a period of increase, but are starting to reach higher levels in between.

There is not much to worry about for dairy farmers. Spring beckons and with it begins the countdown to the new growing season. Usually a time of quietly waiting for what will happen next.