Market and milk price click again

The question is what will happen next. In any case, FrieslandCampina increased for March, but will the IFE go along with this? What is striking is that the prices of butter and skimmed milk powder are moving further and further apart. Without exception, the butter market is described as good. In the Netherlands, the price rose to 420 euros per 100 kg, compared to 4,10 to 4,25 euros per kg in Germany. Cream benefits from this and rises to 4,85 euros per kg ex work. Easter is being called cautiously and the asparagus season has yet to start.

The flag hangs in milk powder in a very different way. For the GDT sentiment was already not good, but after that the market was completely in a negative mood. ZuivelNL quoted a price of 184 euros per 100 kilos, but commercial prices are more likely to be 170 to 175 euros per 100 kg. The higher prices are still being maintained, mainly by processors. Germany quotes 1.800 to 1.920 euros per tonne. Skimmed milk concentrate is carried away. Slightly more supply due to severe weather from France also does not help. The price drops to 1.500 euros per tonne of dry matter ex-factory.             

The difficulty in such a market is that buyers sit back and can thus further fuel the declines. As a result, the word intervention is buzzing around again. Only less milk than anticipated can apparently put a stop to this. Whole milk powder is also under pressure. In the Netherlands, the price is still 284 euros per kilo, compared to 2.950 to 3.020 euros per tonne in Germany. New Zealand product is again below the Dutch price. Less purchasing interest in China is also reported. 

Due to the decrease in the prices of milk powder, cheese is yielding better again, but there too it is still exciting. For Gouda and Edammer foil, the market quotes a price of around 2,70 euros per kg. On the German stock exchange the price is 2,95 to 3,20 euros per kg. In February the price was 3,05 to 3,15 euros per kg. All in all, it produces slightly more cheese and that can have an effect on the price of whey. For now, this remains fixed at 89 euros for feed in the Netherlands and 1.050 euros for food in Germany, compared to 880 euros for feed.       

The developments still leave the price of raw milk unchanged. The supply of milk is only increasing slightly, which means that processors can easily dispose of the milk themselves. Those who do not have to sell ask a price equal to the payout price, those who have to sell receive slightly less. It yields an average of 32,50 euros per 100 kg of milk, delivered at 4,4 percent fat.

In Germany, the price in the north is 30 euros per 100 kg of milk, delivered at 3,7 percent fat versus 31 euros per 100 kg of milk. In week 8, the gap compared to a year earlier amounts to 3,6 percent, while the French fall back to a minus of 2,5 percent compared to a year earlier.    

In the Netherlands, milk supply can probably only increase minimally. It is especially exciting to see what results dairy farmers in Germany, France, England and Ireland will achieve. It is the best asset available at the moment, but this is offset by a higher milk price. It is a difficult market. Do dairy farmers opt for the higher milk price now and more milk or will the supply continue to fail and a good basis will be created for the rest of the year?