What does phosphate reduction do to dairy farming?

Dairy farming has developed within the framework of the milk quota over the past 30 years. Those frameworks were replaced by a Dairy Cattle Act and an Order in Council on land-relatedness. In 2017, room had to be made for a changing Phosphate Reduction Regulation. In collaboration with CBS, Boerenbusiness the course that dairy farming will follow.

Up to and including 2015, dairy farmers were forced to purchase a quota for a higher production of milk. Or they had to pay a super levy, which was fine every now and then. This resulted in a dairy farm with a large young stock density. This was because no quota was required, but a herd of dairy cows with optimal milk production.

15 percent less young stock
In 2000, the Netherlands also had an average young stock density of 88 per 100 dairy cows. This average dropped to 2016 animals per 75 cows in 100, a drop of almost 15 percent.

The differences by province are also quite large. Zeeland and Limburg, for example, stood head and shoulders above the rest in 2000 with numbers of 109 and 101 young cattle per 100 cows. In 2016, they are still the leaders in young stock, but with 80 and 85 young stock per 100 dairy cows respectively. 

The smallest herd of young stock is in South Holland. In 2016 there were still 100 young cattle per 66 dairy cows. That is a decrease of 6,4 percent. No distinction is made here between dairy farms and companies that are only engaged in raising young stock for dairy farms. 

Herd is getting older
The Dairy Cattle Act, in combination with the Order in Council, focuses on the combination of manure disposal and soil. This also means that young stock and heifers that have not yet calved become important for the profitability of the company. With that in mind, it is not surprising that the spread between the numbers of young stock almost halved from 2000 to 2016. As a result, the average herd on dairy farms is getting older.

In 2017, this development will initially gain momentum due to the first 2 versions of the Phosphate Reduction Regulation 2017. On April 28, a Young stock again partially put a stop to it. It is allowed to dispose of young stock, but only in combination with dairy cows to keep the ratio in order. For now, this means that the April 28 ratio is leading for the rest of the year. 

Declining trend in breeding heifer exports
The second reason that the average herd is getting older can be traced back to the export of pregnant heifers and breeding stock. From 2014 to 2016, the export value dropped from 85 to 68 euros per 1.000 euros, according to Statistics Netherlands. That is a logical consequence of the number that fell to 42.000 units. Only in 2012 fewer animals were exported. 

The main buyers of the heifers in 2015 were: Hungary with 21.990 heads, Russia with 7.254 heads and the United Kingdom with 4.535 heads. The trend towards Hungary is increasing and so is Russia. The capricious buyers are: Germany, Jordan, Morocco, France and Algeria.

In 2017, exports are going very well and there are indications that the 2016 total will already be achieved in the first half of the year. 

Shrinkage of future milk puddle
This also points to an aging herd and at the same time guarantees a contraction in future milk production. The number of young cattle has made the export of heifers a lot more difficult. For every heifer, a cow also has to leave. A heifer will be moved to the cow category in the foreseeable future. Export then leaves one less opportunity to keep milk production going.  

Opposite the 2 signals, which point to an older herd, there is a trend that heralds a rejuvenation. It concerns the many slaughterings and the high export of cattle for slaughter. From 2012 to 2016, the export value grew from 140 to 195 euros per 1.000 euros. The number of animals fell to 228.000. Indicating that more animals left at a higher price. 

No figures are available for 2017 yet, but based on the noises from the field and with the knowledge that dairy farmers hardly dispose of cows, it seems that the export of cattle for slaughter has increased again. This in combination with a rising price can result in a further increase in turnover in this category.

High numbers to slaughter
Not only are cows slaughtered across the border, high numbers are also sent away every week in the Netherlands. For the months of January and February, CBS puts the intermediate position at 101.800 cows, 2.700 heifers and 10.200 bulls. Which gives an intermediate standings of 114.800 animals.

Only in 2001 and 2002 were there more animals with 130.200 and 118.100 animals respectively. Up to and including week 17, the number has only increased to 275.931 animals. This means that in total almost 16 percent more animals were slaughtered than in 2002. In 2001 the number dropped drastically in April. 

As a result of the young stock numbers, there is a great chance that this number will only get further out of line. Without young stock numbers, slaughter numbers usually drop until the selection round just before winter.

Logical consequence of policy
Due to the developments outlined, large numbers of animals are disappearing on both sides of the herd. After 2 months of LU scheme, the young stock percentage is more or less fixed, but dairy farmers still have a free hand in the dairy cows. This stops the aging of the herds on the farms and rejuvenation occurs again. Not good news in the pursuit of more sustainable livestock farming, but a logical consequence of the policy that has been initiated.                  

Herman van den Pol

Herma van den Pol has been with us since 2011 Boerenbusiness and has developed over the years into a market expert Milk & Feed. In addition, she can be seen weekly in the market flash about the dairy market.

h.vandenpol@boerenbusiness. Nl

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