How many livestock can the environment handle?

There is sufficient support to hold a thirty-member debate about the future of the Dutch livestock. This must be conducted with the State Secretary for Economic Affairs. The aim of the debate is to answer the question: 'How much shrinkage is needed to comply with the climate agreement? At the same time, a RIVM report was published that already partly answers that question.

It is still unknown when the debate will take place, but it does make it clear again what politicians want with the agricultural sector. The ball got rolling through an investigation of the Louis Bolk Institute commissioned by the Environmental Federation. That last one is by the way started a petition for a higher milk price. The aim is to shrink 500.000 dairy cows by 2030.

Increase in greenhouse gas
The report comes just after the publication of the interim results in this file of the RIVM (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment). It reports that over 2015, greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands increased by 4 percent. This increase was mainly due to the increase in CO2 emissions as a result of higher electricity production in coal-fired power stations. Due to the cold winter, more fuel was used for space heating than in 2014. The total emissions for 2015 amount to 195,2 billion kilograms of CO2 equivalents. 

What does this mean?
In 2014, the Netherlands fell below the base year 1990 for the first time. The premise of Kyoto. In 2015, the Netherlands will again be 1,5 percent above it. Without the decrease in methane, among other things, the exceedance would have been even greater.

The report also notes that declines in agriculture and waste management have contributed most to the improvements. Over the years, the share of greenhouse gases from the agricultural sector has fallen to 9,8 percent. Methane in particular remains a point of attention. Approximately a quarter of this is attributed to mature dairy cattle.     

Animal numbers as a basis
RIVM uses animal numbers as the basis for methane emissions. This means that there has been a stabilization in 2016 and that a decrease can be noted in 2017 when it comes to cattle. Also poultry en pigs are major producers of gas. It is known that the pig herd declined further in 2016. Based on the rights trade, there is no prospect of growth in 2017. Only in poultry is it not clear what the current trend is.

When it comes to CO2, the agricultural sector does not actually participate and that is where the biggest gains can be made. However, methane has more consequences for the climate. Incidentally, the methane emissions from dairy cattle can be reduced by using more silage maize in the ration. 

What did Milieudefensie research?
Louis Bolke researched for Milieudefensie what the size and structure of dairy farming would be if a number of preconditions were taken into account. Those are:

• No derogation for the usage standards of manure;
• A legal obligation to land and graze;
• A ban on the processing and export of cattle manure;
• A stricter climate and ammonia policy;
• Only the use of feed from the EU.

Ultimately, this resulted in too many uncertainties and the focus shifted to land-relatedness, manure disposal on own land and feed from the EU. However, the researchers still indicate that there are many developments that are difficult to predict.

100 percent biologically not feasible
The research shows that 100 percent organic is probably not feasible, because there is not enough sales. Care should also be taken that the import of dairy from outside the Netherlands does not become attractive, because this is not good for the environment.

At the same time, using less grass is not desirable and the disposal of manure on own land does not provide any environmental benefit. This also has to do with usage standards that are separate from what the sector produces. In addition, there is no certainty yet for the environmental targets up to and including 2030. The ideal size for water quality and the phosphate balance is ultimately estimated at 1,3 million units.

The report also mentions the discouragement of the consumption of milk and meat. However, the Netherlands exports the majority of agricultural products. As a result, there is actually no relationship between domestic consumption and production. If one also takes a look over the border, it turns out that in New Zealand, for example, everything is being done to keep cows away from ditches, streams and lakes.

It means that simply letting the cow walk in the meadow is too short-sighted to do anything for the environment. The question is whether sufficient information is available to draw up a vision for the future of livestock farming.  

Herman van den Pol

Herma van den Pol has been with us since 2011 Boerenbusiness and has developed over the years into a market expert Milk & Feed. In addition, she can be seen weekly in the market flash about the dairy market.

h.vandenpol@boerenbusiness. Nl

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