Short term expectations
European Commission expects butter shortage
The European Commission (EC) expects that there will be a shortage of butter in the coming six months. In addition, the EC expects the demand for cheese to increase significantly. This is apparent from the short-term forecast of the European Commission.
The milk price in the EU-28 has remained fairly stable since the beginning of the year, at €333 per 1.000 litres. The decline in milk stocks in Europe and New Zealand, the strong demand for milk fats and dynamic exports are the main reasons for this stable milk price.
More milk expected
The European Commission expects 0,7% more milk to be produced in the second half of 2017. Ireland, Poland and the United Kingdom in particular should have a significant share in this.
However, it is also expected that less milk will be supplied from France and Germany. The EC's expectations for the Netherlands are also less positive. This has mainly to do with the phosphate reduction plan, as a result of which the livestock in the Netherlands is shrinking and therefore less milk is produced.
Production per cow is getting higher
According to the EC's short-term expectations, milk production per cow will increase by 2%. On the other hand, the Commission also expects the percentage of milk fats to fall by 0,7%. According to the EC, this is because the cows have a changed eating pattern.
In addition, it was striking that the slaughter figures in Europe increased by 2016% in 8, compared to 2015. That is still falling not directly to be expected, as growth has fallen by 0,4%. The European Commission therefore emphasizes that the productivity of heifers is important in the coming six months.
Cheese production will increase
The market for cheese is also expected to increase. An increase of 2% is expected in the coming six months. This increase is mainly based on the increasing popularity of cheese. A few examples of this are the increase in mozzarella for pizza toppings and cheddar for hamburgers.
3
procent
There is also a strong demand for butter at the moment. The industrial use of butter has increased considerably, at the expense of vegetable fats. However, the production of butter will decrease by 3%. This is mainly the result of the increasing production of cheese. In addition, the decrease in the fat content in the milk is a limiting factor for the production of butter. This, combined with strong global demand, will lead to a shortage of butter.
Exports of skimmed milk powder will increase
Finally, the European Commission expects that the production of skimmed milk powder will decrease by 10% in the coming six months. This is mainly the result of the increasing popularity of milk fats. On the other hand, it is expected that the export of skimmed milk powder will increase by 24% due to the lower prices. The largest importer is probably China. There, the demand for skimmed milk powder rose by more than 43% in the past six months.
Kimberly Baker
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