Countus Dairy Cattle Index shows slight increase

The Countus Dairy Cattle Index has again shown an upward trend over the past 4 weeks. However, the increase is slowing down. This is due to the pressure on the butter market and the wider milk supply. The forecast shows that the decline is now starting.

The Countus Dairy Cattle Index closed at 190.9 points last month† The Index has also risen again in the past 4 weeks. This brings the Dairy Cattle Index to 192.3 points. That is a less strong increase than in recent months.

Less strong increase
The milk supply is increasing and this is depressing, among other things, the spot quotation of raw milk. The milk processors indicate that they are receiving more milk again. For example, more milk was offered in Germany, France and a number of countries outside the European Union (EU).

The butter price is also under pressure. This is also noticeable in the butter prices. These have been rising for months, even to €700 per tonne. However, this now seems at a turning point to have come. 

The intervention scheme for skimmed milk powder is also closed at the end of September. The European market is now dependent on world market prices. Due to a lower price in the United States (US), reductions are obvious. These factors ensure that the Dairy Cattle Index shows a less strong increase. 

Hardly any trade in hay bales
The prices of standard chunk A have been falling since April. This has a positive effect on the Index. The prices of hay bales are also falling. Due to the good growing season, most dairy farmers have more than enough grass, so that little has to be purchased. This causes the Index to rise.

There is another part that comes into play. The prices of cattle are falling. As a result, there is hardly any trading, which may also have an impact on the Countus Dairy Cattle Index.

Forecast shows decline
Due to the ample supply, it is expected that the milk price will fall in the coming months. This also has consequences for the Countus Dairy Cattle Index. The forecast shows that a decline will start from now on. The increase has been minimal in the past 4 months, compared to the previous months, but it will now actually turn around.The Countus Dairy Cattle Index will rise sharply in 2017.From week 36, the Countus Dairy Cattle Index levels off.The Countus Dairy Cattle Index is now expected to decline.

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