Yield still creates opportunities for milkers

The butter bubble is slowly emptying and the chances of outliers in the milk price are also evaporating. This has consequences for the return in dairy farming, but the Countus Dairy Cattle Index still shows an above-average return up to and including May.

The Countus Dairy Cattle Index, which is compiled in collaboration with DCA, comes out at 47 points in week 136.20. That is a small step back from last month, but still 9% above last year.

Through week 40, the Index rose to an all-time high. The strong rise in the price of milk fat in particular supported this increase. With the butter bubble slowly deflating, the yield forecast is returning to more mainstream levels. Nevertheless, the Index is still more than 36 points above the 10-year average, which counts as 100.

Anticipating phosphate rights
The predicted fall in the Index, in combination with the phosphate rights system, will cause the return to fall sharply. However, the extent depends on the development of the milk price and the choices made by dairy farmers. Can the stocking density still be reduced, is it opting to outsource the rearing of young stock and/or is it still decided to purchase additional phosphate rights?

It is important to determine a position in good time and to strengthen that position with the right choices during the period of the phosphate rights system. Anticipating the current changes too late will mean producing less milk in the second half of 2018. This may be due to the forced removal of highly productive livestock.  

Playing field changes
In short: the playing field is changing again. The size of the sector is regulated (via phosphate rights) and thus also the amount of milk to be produced is regulated, depending on the farm-specific circumstances. Visualize the playing field and monitor, determine and strengthen the position by anticipating in good time.Since the end of the milk quota, the average has been 108 points.Up to and including May 2018, returns will remain above average. 

Herman van den Pol

Herma van den Pol has been with us since 2011 Boerenbusiness and has developed over the years into a market expert Milk & Feed. In addition, she can be seen weekly in the market flash about the dairy market.

h.vandenpol@boerenbusiness. Nl

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