Inside: Dairy Market

Phosphate rights price tends to yo-yo

24 January 2018 - Wouter Baan

After a few weeks of declines, the price of phosphate rights suddenly starts to rise again. Where does this turn come from, and will the price increase continue?

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Now that the majority of dairy farmers have received the decision for the phosphate rights system, the calculations have begun at the kitchen tables. It ensures a revival of demand on the market, traders say. The €182 per phosphate right, that last week was still on the signs, is now a thing of the past. Since last Friday, demand suddenly picked up, as a result of a drying up supply. Many rights were also traded over the weekend.

At the beginning of this week (Monday and Tuesday), prices were even cautiously approaching the psychological limit of €200 per right. Several traders confirm that they have done business above €195 per right.

190

euro

notes the DCA quotation for phosphate rights in week 4

Demand is yo-yoing
However, the market is not expected to rise above this level in the short term. The question subsided somewhat today (January 24). Currently, rights are traded for prices between €188 and €192 per kilo. The DCA quotation for phosphate rights for week 4 amounts to €190 per right, an increase of €8 per right. The trade focuses on relatively small portions of phosphate: roughly between 200 kilos and 600 kilos of phosphate.

As confidence in the milk price increases somewhat, dairy quotations are now cautiously at a higher level bottom has been encountered, many dairy farmers opt to purchase phosphate rights instead of removing livestock. This leaves a lot of underlying demand, but at the same time there is a fear of paying too much. On balance, it results in an exploratory market that tends to yo-yo. ​

The movement of the DCA listing of phosphate rights in recent weeks. 

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