Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Prospects for dairy cattle yield slightly better
The decline in the Countus Dairy Cattle Index came to an end for the time being in February. In the meantime, the forecast even points to an upward movement.
At the beginning of February (week 6) the Index is trading at 113.30 points, with the 10-year average being 100. Since the autumn, the Index has fallen sharply, as at the end of September it was still at a record high of 193 points. This decline now appears to have stopped. This is because the appreciation of various dairy products (butter and cream) look up again. This offers various starting points for a bottom in the currently falling milk prices.
Costs are decisive
On the cost side, declining prices for cattle slurry have been visible since the start of the new year. The national average of the DCA quotation for cattle slurry in week 6 was €19,40 per cubic meter.
Since the ripening season has started, further relaxation is expected in the fertilizer market. This is in line with the long-term average. That cannot be said for both the price of roughage and concentrate; they will probably stay price-loving.
March forecast
The Index is expected to rise above 120 points again in March, which means a slight increase. With today's knowledge, this upward trend will continue towards the summer months. However, partly due to the different situations (with regard to phosphate rights) per dairy farm, the differences can vary considerably. 
Wouter Job
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