Inside: Dairy Market

Spot milk less available due to frost

1 March 2018 - Wouter Baan

There is room for higher prices on the spot market for raw milk. Where does this price increase come from, and why is the DCA cream price switching back?

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Due to the cold weather, raw milk is less available in Europe. Various dairy farmers report that less milk is coming their way. Parties that would otherwise sell their 'surpluses' on the spot market now process the milk in their own factory. The rising price of cream and butter in February is also a reason why processors process the milk themselves more often. Sales in the fresh segment are certainly picking up now that Easter is approaching.

400

euro

the DCA cream price drops in week 9

Increase due to limited availability
It results in a relatively thin trade for free milk. The volumes traded are selling at higher prices. Sometimes even with a single outlier of up to €30 per 100 kilos. The DCA quotation does not reach that far, because it amounts to €28,50 (+€2) per 100 kilos. This is delivered at 4,4% fat. The center of gravity of the trade is around this level.

The winter cold is also causing a shrinking milk supply in Germany, although it is still slightly (about 2%) above last year's level. However, at the beginning of this year this was still above 5%. The spot price for Northern Germany increases by €2 to €26 per 100 kilos. A similar increase is visible in southern Germany, where the quotation amounts to €27 per 100 kilos (delivered at 3,7% fat).

Correction for cream
The DCA cream price, on the other hand, drops by €400 to €5.650 per tonne (ex works). The reason for this is the significant price increase recent weeks. There is a willingness to sell. This has released more volume. The price drop can be seen as a correction, although no one dares to venture into the direction that the cream price is now going to take.

The price of skimmed milk concentrate remains at €775 per tonne (ex factory), although this price level has become somewhat more fixed in the market. Prices are slightly increasing in France. 

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