Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy cattle Index has peaked
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index falls slightly in week 9 to reach 130.20 points. It's still a relatively high level, but it also means the Index has reached its all-time high.
The unexpected rise in fat prices is good for the Countus Dairy Cattle Index. This gave the Index the opportunity to continue to 131 points, after which it fell back to 130.20 points. The 10-year average is 100. This is a plus of 17.70 points, compared to 1 month earlier.
Delay in translation to milk price
When the Index over the milk price of FrieslandCampina is laid, there appears to be a delay in the translation of the trend to the milk price. The price did see a special movement this year: by remaining high, while the prices of dairy products fell. In the first quarter of the year, this translated into a rapid depreciation of the milk price.
On other fronts, dairy farmers are more prosperous compared to last year. An example of this are the prices for cows, which are almost a quarter higher than in 2017. Feed prices also tend to be lower, with the exception of of structural products.
The fact that something more is possible financially is also apparent in the trade in phosphate rights† At the beginning of March, trade is somewhat more lively. An average transaction amounts to 4,5 dairy cows.
Common thread in the Index
The Index's forecast makes it clear that a slight decline is anticipated. Towards the end of the summer it will bounce back. The common thread is still that the Index hovers above 120 points. That could yield a return comparable to 2013.
Herman van den Pol
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