How does the price of phosphate rights move?

Almost everyone in the market shares the opinion that the phosphate rights trade will not come to a standstill this week. In some cases, a lack of supply is the limiting factor in getting to business; this is especially true in the Northern Netherlands. The selling parties 'speculate' that the price will pick up when the derogation for broader manure standards is definitely in the pocket.

The purchasing dairy farmers wanted to avoid a price increase, and therefore frequently reported to the purchasing front in the past 2 weeks. Compared with last week the bandwidth of the assignments is now (week 14) much closer together; This causes the DCA quotation for phosphate rights to increase by €0,50 to €187,50 per right. The statements are based on matters done before the derogation decision.

(Text continues below the chart)Has the advance on the extension of the derogation already been taken, or not yet (completely)?

Definitive clarity
Now the Nitrate Committee has agreed The European Commission's derogation proposal has provided the market with clarity. It will become clear in the coming days what this will do to the price. It is likely that it will finally persuade some dairy farmers to go into business. It is therefore expected that the market is heading for a slight price increase.

However, it is unlikely that the price will simply rise above €200 per right again. This is because the market has already taken an advance on the derogation extension; this happened in the days after the Commission the proposal had announced.