CBS outlines minimal increase
Chance of intervention in phosphate is reduced
The likelihood of intervention in the production of phosphate is reduced. This is apparent from figures from Statistics Netherlands for the first quarter of 2018. Phosphate production, for example, shows a small increase, but the total production of phosphate from livestock farming remains below the Dutch phosphate ceiling.
The European Union (EU) allows Dutch livestock farming to produce a total of 172,9 million kilos of phosphate, under the derogation for wider application standards for nitrogen. From the CBS forecast shows that for 2018, 167 million kilos of phosphate are taken into account, which gives the Netherlands slightly more than 3% leeway.
Uncertainty in feed
That space is necessary, because in the calculation of the phosphate production quite a few uncertainties. For example, it is only known what the phosphate levels in the roughage for 2018 will be, when the grass has been harvested. This means that we now have to work with forecasts. For the grass, a slightly lower phosphorus content is then assumed, compared to 2017. While maize produces slightly more phosphorus.
Also the phosphorus in concentrates, there are various uncertainties, but there the feed track provides more guidance. For example, it turned out to be successful for dairy farming in 2017, but successes are also being achieved in the pig sector.
Good news in dairy farming
There is also good news for dairy farming, which has a ceiling of 84,9 million kilos of phosphate. Here the prognosis comes out at 83,3 million kilos of phosphate, which leaves almost 2% for setbacks. The estimate for the number of dairy cows is 1.626.000 animals. It is an increase of 0,1% compared to the end of December. Female young stock decreased by 0,7% and the percentage of female young stock of 1 year and older decreased by 2,9% (compared to December).
Although the figures leave little room for setbacks, the chance of possible intervention by agriculture minister Carola Schouten well off. An official response from Schouten to the quarterly report (by means of a letter to parliament) is still lacking.
Herman van den Pol
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