Inside: Dairy Market

Trade in phosphate is getting thinner

16 May 2018 - Wouter Baan

The trade in phosphate rights can be called calm. The market is thus showing signs of stability. However, prices are slowly moving towards higher levels.

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Although views vary somewhat from trader to trader, trade is not wild. However, the prices are moving away from €180 per right (net purchase). A price level of €183 per right is a frequently mentioned level. However, supply at this level is starting to dry up. Since the market has risen somewhat, the DCA quotation for phosphate rights will increase this week by €2,50 to €183,50 per kilo. The portion sizes are around 300 kilos. 

Selling parties raise the lower limit 

The selling parties are increasingly starting to focus on price levels from €185 per right. However, the purchasing parties do not want to start this (yet). Traders report that traded volumes have shown a downward trend since the start of the year. By far the most kilos of phosphate were traded in January and more in March than in February. However, since March, traded volumes have been declining, traders say. 

Clear image through Combined assignment
Last week, many dairy farmers finalized the completion of the Combined Declaration. This means that almost everyone has an idea of ​​any surpluses/shortages. It is estimated that many dairy farmers have now reasonably covered the required phosphate space. At the same time, according to traders, there are also dairy farmers who still have to buy more than 1.000 kilos of phosphate, for example.

The underlying purchasing interest makes the market somewhat erratic. The buying desire of a few major players can cause the supply to evaporate. However, many buyers usually use staggered purchase moments, which takes into account stable to slightly improving prices.

DCA listing phosphate rights Price range (week 19)  Number of problems Average
€183,50 (+€2,50) € 182,50 - € 184,50 7 €183,50
Explanation DCA Markets: 
The trade in phosphate rights is having another quiet week. However, the assignments (and therefore the ranking) have increased slightly. However, the supply is starting to dry up, causing the selling parties to aim for higher prices (€185 per right). Buying parties are not yet responding to this. 

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