Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy farming nears top in yield
The month of May again yields pluses in the return on the dairy farm. However, dairy farming is now approaching the top, according to the Countus Dairy Cattle Index. This may be perceived differently in the field, partly due to the contrarian movement in milk prices.
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index, composed with DCA, manages to increase until week 20; from 154,70 points in week 17, the Index rises to 160,70 points in week 20. The 10-year average is 100. The forecast shows that there is still a little room to climb, but that the sector will stable period.
Butter at the highest point?
This stable trend is also reflected in the developments in the futures market. For example, skimmed milk powder was able to take a firm step up, and the price is approaching €1.600 per ton for the first time in a long time. There appears to be little room for a further increase in butter.
What the futures market shows is also reflected in the physical market. For example, butter is expensive enough that, in combination with a slightly more expensive protein, it can once again become an attractive destination for milk. Something that usually means that production will increase, but this has yet to be proven in practice.
The pluses on the futures market have so far surpassed the milk price. This is partly due to the rising trend of the milk supply in the spring, but also to the high milk prices at the end of 2017. These were not supported by the market, which means that losses have to be made up for. However, processors could prevent dairy farmers from being paid the lowest prices.
Pluses in livestock prices
The value of milk is the most important factor in the profitability of dairy farming. At the same time, livestock prices have continued to improve, especially for calves. What is less favorable are the lump prices, which have steadily increased in recent months. 
Herman van den Pol
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