Demand for milk is only increasing

According to the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN), milk consumption can only go one way, and that is up. This is due to the growing world population. Due to increasing prosperity, consumption per person is also increasing. In its forecast, the IFCN assumes that both milk consumption and production will increase by 1% until 2030.

Especially in Southeast Asia
The greatest growth is probably not in the West, but mainly in Southeast Asia. The milk pool has increased considerably in recent years and that trend continues; the IFCN expects an increase of 35% to an annual production of 1,168 billion tons in 2030. By then, the world population will have increased by 16% to 8,7 billion people, or at least that is what is expected. According to the IFCN, the average milk production per person has increased by 19 kilos or 135 kilos per year.

In Southeast Asia, the IFCN assumes a production increase of 40% to 196 kilos per person per year. Milk production in that region is therefore expected to increase sharply (+64% to 392 million tons). The additional volumes do not have a disruptive effect on the world market, because the countries in this region do not export.

Average milk price
On balance, the number of milk-producing animals (cows, sheep and goats) will grow by 2030% to 12 million animals until 417. However, livestock populations in the European Union are hardly growing. The number of dairy farms in the world has fallen by 14 million to more than 100 million. This means that economies of scale will continue. Dairy farms can count on an average milk price of $2030 per 41 kilos (100% fat, 4% protein) until 3,3. This forecast corresponds to the estimate made by the institution for the period between 2004 and 2014.

However, these levels are unlikely to be reached again this year. Until the end of 2018, the IFCN assumes a milk price between $35 and $37 per 100 kilos (€30 and €32 per 100 kilos). The growing milk supply in many countries is exerting pressure.