Inside Milk

Response to skimming lease rights is coming soon

12 September 2018 - Wouter Baan

After some erratic weeks, the phosphate rights trade has calmed down and the buying parties are behaving in a wait-and-see manner. Is this because the price is trending downwards, or are they waiting for the ultimatum from LTO Nederland? The ministry has announced that there will be more clarity in 1 week (perhaps even sooner).

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The phosphate rights were introduced last week traded for prices up to €275 per right. After that, demand weakened and that situation is still ongoing this week. As prices are cautiously trending downwards, buyers are cautious. The market is talking about a 'breathing space'.

Based on the statements, the DCA quotation for phosphate rights increases by €2 to €272,50 per right. However, there is no upward trend. Prices fluctuate from day to day within a range of €268 per right to a maximum of €275 per right. 

Clarity coming soon
In the long term, the price is not expected to drop much. The underlying demand is too strong for that, traders note. The pause may have to do with the 'ultimatum' that LTO Netherlands has set, regarding whether or not skimming (10%) is mandatory when leasing phosphate rights. The party has expressly asked the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality to provide clarity on this point by Wednesday, September 12.

Schouten's spokesperson says that no clarity will be provided on September 12, but hopes that more can be announced in a week's time (perhaps even earlier). "First the House of Representatives must be informed." It means that the call from LTO Netherlands has ensured that the answer comes faster.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding this subject, it is difficult to provide a price forecast. With today's knowledge, traders foresee a stable market in the short term.

DCA listing phosphate rights Price range (week 36)  Number of problems Average
€270,50 (+€2,00) € 268,50 - € 272,50 6 €270,50
Explanation DCA Markets: 
Based on the statements, the DCA quotation for phosphate rights increases slightly this week. There is no rising trend. Traders talk about a quiet market, where some rights are traded sparsely. It is quite possible that buyers are waiting for the 'ultimatum' (skimming off lease rights) from LTO Netherlands. 

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