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Inside Milk

Consequences of drought visible in milk supply

2 November 2018 - Kimberly Bakker

The drought has clearly had an impact on milk supply in large parts of Europe, causing it to decline in the European Union. This is stated in the LTO International Milk Price Comparison.

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Within the European Union it was in Germany barely there was growth and in France the milk supply for August even showed a slight decrease to 1.913.690 tons. A decrease in milk supply is also visible in Italy and the United Kingdom (up to 1,2 million tons).

Boerenbusiness wrotet earlier that the Netherlands showed a significant contraction in August; it was even the largest decline within the European Union. However, also in september milk supply in the Netherlands is declining sharply, often as a result of the introduction of phosphate rights. As a result, many dairy farmers have made the decision to cull cows.

The milk supply in the Netherlands has shown a sharp decline in recent months.

What is the situation outside Europe?
According to the LTO International Milk Price Comparison, there is still growth in production outside Europe. In contrast, Australia recorded a decline for the third month in a row. In the United States, growth has been below the long-term average (1,6%) for some time. This was also not achieved in September. 

Prices under pressure
After all emotions surrounding the drought had disappeared from the market at the end of August, prices came under pressure; Butter prices in particular fell rapidly and at the end of October the price was already 25% lower than in the previous 2 months.

Milk supply in the US is falling sharply, but is still above previous years.

Also showed the price of skimmed milk powder saw a decline until early October, after which it recovered slightly. The sale of a large quantity of intervention powder (at a price of €123,10) appears to have created a bottom in the market. Due to the decreased fat and protein prices, the price of whole milk powder came under pressure. European product is still too expensive for the world market, where New Zealand and South America are very competitive. 

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