How big is phosphate stress at the end of the year?

Minister Carola Schouten (Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality) sent an email on November 26 brief to the House of Representatives about the enforcement of the phosphate rights system. She once again makes it clear that exceeding the permitted phosphate production falls under criminal law and that enforcement is based on the 'Economic Offenses Act'. Too high phosphate production can even lead to a criminal record for the entrepreneur.

From mid-March, the Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority (NVWA) will carry out analyzes based on the actual quantity of milk delivered. The analyzes will be the basis for enforcement. Schouten thinks that entrepreneurs can easily make adjustments: on the website of the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO.nl) they see the number of phosphate rights and the milk supply is known via the dairy factory. However, a tour of some dairy farmers reveals a different picture.

CRV planner
Ask a few random dairy farmers how they keep track of phosphate and the answer is almost standard: "I rely on the CRV planner." Then ask a few more detailed questions and the answer is: "I have no idea, CRV must have processed that, right?" There seems to be a great deal of confidence in the CRV planner.

However, CRV's phosphate planner is a private instrument and has no legal status that a dairy farmer can rely on. As a livestock farmer, it is necessary to understand and control what is happening on the farm. The malfunctioning of systems caused problems for many companies in February. More than 2.000 companies were closed due to the suspicion of cattle fraud. Yet dairy farmers now rely on a private system again.

Rights of beef cattle and export cattle
The dairy farmers who had purchased rights from beef farmers have now received a message from the ministry: the sale will not take place. The sale had been postponed and so the dairy farmer could have known that the purchase might not go through. However, until the final decision came, it was a matter of waiting. This decision only came in the fourth quarter, meaning these dairy farmers have to quickly look for a solution.

Dairy farmer Jawin Klein Hegeman from Bathmen (Overijssel) made his decision on Twitter. His case appears to be very special: the rights were already purchased through an estate agent in January. Ultimately, the selling party did not receive a decision because it concerned young cattle for export. A decision was promised a few weeks ago, but it has not yet been issued. Klein Hegeman is therefore in great uncertainty. "I do not have a contract with the seller, but with the broker. In principle, he must simply deliver what is stated in the contract."

Just on the edge
There is also a group that rubs shoulders with the next phosphate class. That is a big risk: suppose there is an exceedance at the end of the year, then the cows will retroactively count in a higher phosphate class. At the end of the year, this will be almost impossible to correct.

One option is to purchase additional allowances at the end of the year. However, there is a good chance that these will be expensive and it is also very risky to wait for them; It often happens that systems suddenly do not work properly and that may mean that registration is not successful in those last days. The dairy farmers indicate that it is also possible to drain the last tank of the year into the well. If that makes the difference between a criminal record or not, then that is a realistic option.

buffer
Many dairy farmers keep a buffer of about 100 kilos of phosphate. If all dairy farmers do this, on paper this will result in an undershoot of 1,6 million kilos of phosphate (there are approximately 16.000 dairy farms). However, this kite does not fly, because hundreds of dairy farmers threaten to produce too much phosphate. According to the phosphate monitor according to Statistics Netherlands, dairy farming probably remains 2,5 million kilos below the phosphate ceiling.

It becomes extra complicated when the legislation for fasting calves (nukas) is added: according to the Phosphate rights policy rule the goal is decisive. This means: a calf that has no destination (suckler cow or dairy cow) does not need phosphate rights. However, according to RVO.nl, every calf, regardless of its purpose, needs rights. Dairy farmers can therefore choose: do they follow the policy rule and risk going to court or do they follow the line of RVO.nl?

Complicated matter 
All in all, it turns out not to be as easy as Schouten makes it seem in her letter: staying under the individual phosphate ceiling is complicated for many companies. And purchasing additional rights does not always go smoothly. The unclear regulations, a too tight buffer and lack of clarity regarding the purchase and sale of rights causes 'phosphate stress' on many dairy farms.