A study by the Netherlands Coordination Center for Manure Processing (NCM) shows that the phosphate surplus is expected to increase again in 2019. This is because manure exports are under pressure. It also means that new markets are needed.
The phosphate supply in the Netherlands (including manure import and fertilizer) shows a decrease in 2017 from 6,9 million to 189,6 million kilos; of this, 166 million kilograms is animal phosphate excretion. However, the installation space actually increased between 2016 and 2017: from 140,8 million kilos of phosphate in 2016 to 141,9 million kilos in 2017. As a result, the phosphate surplus decreased by 8 million kilos to 47,7 million kilos of phosphate.
The decline in phosphate exports is a result of the phosphate reduction plan, which was implemented in 2017. This led, among other things, to lower phosphorus levels in the animal feed and a smaller dairy herd.
Falling exports
Manure exports (expressed in phosphate) fell in 2017 for the first time in years by 1,7 million kilos to 40,2 million kilos of phosphate. This trend will also continue in 2018, because in the first 3 quarters exports fell by 23%.
In addition, Germany has been applying a new manure policy since 2017, which means that there is less room for foreign manure. This has a lot of impact, because the country is the largest buyer of Dutch manure. Belgium and France are also major buyers.
Nitrogen supply increased
Although there is no nitrogen surplus, the nitrogen supply over 2017 to 451,4 million kilos. That is 6 million kilos more than in 2016. The total installation space also increased (+0,4 million kilos), but to a lesser extent than the supply. All in all, it resulted in a nitrogen surplus of 2017 kilograms in 50,8.
Nitrogen processing and export from animal manure is better in the Netherlands than with phosphate. The total manure export and processing (nitrogen) accounts for 68,2 million kilos. In the period from 2014 to 2017, these figures consistently exceeded the surplus.
What is the expectation?
The prognosis is that the manure surplus (phosphate) will rise again for the first time in years (+0,2 million kilos to 46 million kilos). The increase is mainly due to the fact that there is less installation space (-1,2 million kilos). In contrast, animal phosphate production is reported to fall by 1 million to 165 million kilos.
Bearing in mind lower exports, this could mean, among other things, that more needs to be done invested in fertilizer value, in order to still be able to deposit manure.
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