Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy farmer's return leveling off
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index has shown an increase in recent weeks, but that upward trend is unlikely to continue in the coming months.
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index rose by approximately 5 points in January to 95,2 points, with 100 being the long-term average. The upward trend is mainly due to the positive price developments in the dairy market.
Skimmed milk powder on the rise
An example of these good price developments is the price of skimmed milk powder (ZuivelNL), which has risen by €160 to €1.950 per tonne since the turn of the year. In addition, cheese and butter prices are largely stable. The mood in the milk powder market has improved, now that the intervention stock 99% sold.
Dairy farmers do not yet see the development reflected in the milk price, because it usually reacts with a delay to the rising quotations. Milk prices have mainly declined in recent months, but a net is now spreading. FrieslandCampina has even increased the guaranteed price for February. The milk prices at Arla en a-ware are stable this month.
Relaxation on the cost side
On the cost side, manure disposal costs are about €20 per cubic meter, which is historically high. The ripening season is just around the corner and that usually causes relaxation on the fertilizer market. It is expected that the chunk prices level off and may even decline in the coming months. The past few months have been dominated by rising feed prices.
The Index does not foresee any further improvement in returns in the coming months. A stable return is on the horizon and will remain just below the long-term average.
Wouter Job
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