Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy cattle Index shows a fairly stable picture
Dutch dairy farmers saw their returns decline in the months of February and March. In the meantime, the Countus Dairy Cattle Index has even been falling for a few weeks in a row.
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index is 91,8 points in mid-March, with 100 points being the long-term average. This means that the score is 4,3 points lower than at the beginning of February. Compared to the weeks around Christmas, it is clear that returns have increased somewhat. In that period, the Index recorded 85,6 points.
Milk price moves little
Milk prices are mainly stable in March. This also applies to FrieslandCampina's guaranteed price (€35,50). However, developments in the dairy market do not create room for higher milk prices. For example, butter and cream prices show a declining trend, which means that milk fat has become worth less. If this trend continues, it could have a depressing effect on the milk price in the long run.
In contrast, milk powder prices show an increasing trend, while cheese prices are stable. Although the rising milk powder prices have now leveled off and the price for butter has now reached a bottom. The dairy market is therefore looking a bit off in mid-March directionless.
Lower feed and fertilizer costs
On the cost side, the collection contributions have decreased somewhat, now that manure can be spread again. Chunk prices are also declining. The Index is expected to continue declining for several more weeks. Historically, the downward trend is then reversed. Whether that will also happen this year remains to be seen.
Tim Roetman
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