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Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index

Dairy farmer returns below average

14 May 2019 - Wouter Baan

The Countus Dairy Cattle Index has shown a stable picture for weeks, but the number of points also reflects that the return is below average. On the other hand, the return is expected to increase in the relatively short term.

The Dairy Cattle Index, which is compiled by Countus Accountants and Advisers and DCA Group, fell below 2018 points in the fourth quarter of 100 and has remained at that level ever since. In recent weeks, the Index has fluctuated just below 95 points.

Milk prices and chunk prices are falling
The milk prices of various dairies, such as FrieslandCampina, DOC Kaas and A-ware, were adjusted downwards in May. This has broken the stable price trend. The payout prices react to the falling cheese prices in March.

Chunk prices, on the other hand, have been declining for a few months now; In addition, it is expected that the downward trend for the time being. The collection fees for cattle slurry have been declining since the start of the spreading season in February, although prices are now looking upwards again.

Prognosis
According to the forecast for the coming months, based on historical price developments, an increase is expected. Cheese prices are also rising again; for example, the DCA quotation Foliekaas (Gouda) is now above €3 per kilo. The price of skimmed milk powder has also been on the rise for some time. This is of course positive for the foundation under the milk prices, although higher payout prices are not immediately obvious. 

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Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

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