What pulls American milk prices out of the doldrums?

While the milk supply in March showed a trend break and was below the 2018 level, the figures for April show a minimal increase of 0,3% to 7,88 million tons. Figures from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that the leveling off of milk production, which has been going on for several months, continues.

What is striking is that in large milk-producing states (such as California and Texas) significantly more milk is being milked than 1 year ago. However, this increase is offset by the (large) minuses in the smaller states. 

Decline stopped 
The USDA counted 9,32 million dairy cows in April, making the number almost the same as in March. This indicates that the downward trend has stopped. One reason for this is the rapidly rising milk price. The price of Class III standard milk rose by more than 5% in April to $15,96 per 100 kilos. This is the highest level for April since 2014 and also 10% higher than the same month last year.

Milk prices respond mainly to price increases of various dairy products; For example, the price of Cheddar has started to rise since December 2018, meaning that the low point is behind us. An increase is obvious, because Canada and Mexico the import duties on US dairy is likely to be withdrawn.