Background African swine fever
China slaughters dairy cows to fight meat shortage
China is struggling with a shortage of (pork) meat as a result of the many outbreaks of African swine fever in the country. As a result, Chinese imports are increasing rapidly. Dairy cows are also brought to slaughter in our own country.
The number of outbreaks of African swine fever has now risen to more than 100 and 1,2 million pigs have been culled so far, according to Chinese statistics. However, it is suggested in the corridors that the actual number is much higher. Images are circulating on Twitter that pig farmers are culling pigs on a large scale, without the watchful eye of the authorities.
Due to the many outbreaks of African swine fever, the pig population, which is estimated to be around 500 million animals, will decrease considerably. Rabobank equivalent that China's pork production will contract by about 25% to 35%.
Deals in the making
The government is currently trying to close the meat shortage with all its might. The focus is not only on pork, because the increased pork prices mean that Chinese consumers are turning to substitutes (such as beef and poultry meat). That is why China is once again allowing the import of poultry meat from Russia. It is also considering allowing the import of, for example, buffalo meat from India again and is in consultation with the United Kingdom to restart the import of British beef meat.
Beef exporters are already benefiting from the Chinese meat shortage. For example, China imported 128.000 tons of beef meat in April, which is 75% more than the same month in 2018. It is striking that China has stopped importing Brazilian beef meat since the beginning of June. This is because mad cow disease (BSE) was discovered on a Brazilian cattle farm. The boycott is expected to be lifted soon. Brazil shipped more than 2018 tons of beef to China in 320.000, making it the largest supplier.
Dairy cows to slaughter
Chinese dairy farmers are also anticipating the meat shortage. This is reflected in Chinese dairy imports, which rose to a record high in April. That is also a signal that there is less hard milking in China and that dairy cows are probably being slaughtered. This one trends however, has been going on for a long time.
In the first 4 months of the year, China imported about 331.000 tons of whole milk powder (+35%). Moreover, this volume is almost the same as in 2015. China also imports more skimmed milk powder, baby milk powder and cream. In contrast, Chinese imports of whey powder, as a raw material in animal feed, plummeted by 20% to approximately 150.000 tons.
Wouter Job
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