Analysis Cheese
Higher cheese prices are not ABC's
Just like last week, the status quo on the cheese market remains intact. Inventories are low and the products want to push the price to a higher level. Nevertheless, the DCA quotation Foliekaas remains at the same level. What is going on?
It is very noticeable on the cheese market that it is the holiday season. Trading is calm and short term prices are moving mostly sideways. There is already discussion in the background about prices in the longer term. The cheese producers are aiming for higher prices.
Best valorization
However, it is no abc that cheese prices are going up. Although the high temperatures in northwestern Europe are undoubtedly depressing the milk supply, this does not directly indicate a lower cheese production. The idea is that the cheese trays will fill up anyway, because the production offers the best valorization of raw milk. Moreover, the extreme heat 'only' concerns a period of a few days. The predictions point to lower temperatures in the coming week.
In addition, there is not (yet) any question of a Europe-wide roughage shortage, as the grass growth is good. The European Commission made this statement in the MARS report of July based on satellite images. There are regional differences, however. In Spain and Northern Italy, grass growth has been adversely affected by drought. Also in parts of Germany and Poland more water could have fallen on the meadows.
Stocks are low
Why producers still bet on higher prices is due to the low cheese stocks. This makes a price drop in the short term unlikely anyway. In addition, European cheese prices are competitive on the world market, which supports exports on paper. At the same time, butter prices continue to fall with current price levels at €330 per 100 kilos. Because the cheese prices are related to the milk fat, an increase is not obvious.
All in all, relatively stable cheese prices during the holiday season are most likely. The DCA foil cheese quotation Gouda remains the same this week at € 2,85 per kilo. The price of Edam also mutates stable at €2,77 per kilo.
This article is part of the subscription Boerenbusiness Milk & Feed Pro† In the coming period you can check the weekly cheese analysis of Boerenbusiness read for free for a limited time.
Wouter Job
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