Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy cattle Index chooses way up
Last month the Countus Dairy Cattle Index reached a tipping point, but it has now chosen a direction. Although the Index is still at a relatively low level, the outlook is slightly more positive.
The Dairy Cattle Index has recently expired 4 weeks increased by 0,9 points to 87 points, with 100 points being the long-term average. A relatively strong rise has started, especially in the past 2 weeks, because in that period the Index rose by 1,8 points. Last year at this time of the year, the Index was still 20 points higher, when milk prices were at a significant level Higher level.
It is also not surprising that the Dairy Cattle Index is picking up something again, because most milk prices have remained stable over the past month. Also the feed costs and the prices for phosphate rights are stable to slightly declining. As a result, expenditure has decreased somewhat in the past 4 weeks, while income has remained the same. In short: the return on the dairy farm has therefore increased slightly.
cautiously positive
The index's forecast also shows that the dairy market is currently unpredictable. At the beginning of August, the Countus Dairy Cattle Index was expected to fall further, as a result of the red quotations for, among other things, butter and cheese. In the meantime, however, the way up has started very cautiously, which is partly caused by the unexpectedly rising price of cream products.
Looking at the forecast of the Index, the return is expected to remain relatively stable next month. This is supported by the fact that the first milk prices for the month of September stable stay, with the exception of a-ware which makes a small increase. Incidentally, the prices for roughage can still change, given the first silage corn is expected on the market in just under 2 weeks. However, it is not yet known how high these prices will be.
Kimberly Baker
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