Analysis Cheese
Is Trump going to disrupt the European cheese market?
The upward movement shown in cheese prices since the start of September is continuing. The foil cheese quotation (Gouda) has reached the psychological milestone of € 2,90 per kilo this week. However, there is uncertainty for the somewhat longer term, given that US President Donald Trump is again threatening an import tax on European cheeses.
The market is in a positive flow. As the trough of the seasonal milk supply in Europe is just behind us, cheese stocks Relatively low† In addition, demand (particularly for the short term) is good. This strengthens the position of producers, who therefore bet on higher prices. At the start of this week, Gouda closed at €2 per kilo in the tender that Arla issues every two weeks. This was interpreted as a strong signal in the market, causing prices to further improve.
The DCA foil cheese quotation for Gouda will rise this week by €0,06 to €2,91 per kilo. Since the start of September, that quote has risen by $0,14, breaking the psychological barrier of $2,90. Edam plust by €0,05 to €2,84 per kilo, with the caveat that there is hardly any product in stock.
Import tax?
Due to the significant price steps that have been made, uncertainty is creeping into the market; all the more so because the United States and the European Union are currently bickering over a trade dispute. The United States accuses Brussels of state aid to aircraft manufacturer Airbus and has therefore been threatening measures in the form for some time of taxes (including on cheese and mussels). There are rumors that the tariffs may be introduced from November.
Viewed from the Netherlands, the United States can be regarded as a rewarding market. In 2018, the Netherlands shipped across the Atlantic Ocean for a relatively small amount of €80 million. In terms of volume, however, the United States is the largest sales market in Europe. Just under 2018 tons were exported to the country in 135.000. Market participants say that Italian cheese exports in particular would be hit hard by a possible import tax, which would then have an effect on other European countries.
This article is part of the subscription Boerenbusiness Milk & Feed Pro† In the coming period you can check the weekly cheese analysis of Boerenbusiness read for free for a limited time.
Wouter Job
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