Tight stocks push cheese prices up further

Cheese prices (Gouda and Edam) rose in September and this upward trend will continue in October. This is mainly due to tight stocks at the producers.

Last week the 'Anuga' took place in Cologne. This food fair has traditionally been a benchmark for the dairy trade. At that fair, we look back and look forward to market developments. Stock market sentiment often determines the direction of cheese prices in the fourth quarter.

During the fair, various parties received confirmation of the improved sentiment in the market. The days after the fair, prices continue to rise, driven by tight stocks at producers. In recent weeks, the combination of skimmed milk powder/butter gave the best valorisation of raw milk, so that less milk was processed into cheese. The rising ZuivelNL quotation for whey powder also shows this.

US import duties
Although sentiment on the cheese market is positive, not all signals are in the right direction. From Friday, October 18, US import duties on European cheeses will come into effect. This reportedly concerns about half of Gouda and Edam's exports to the United States. The Italian specialty cheeses in particular are likely to be hit hard by this.

However, it is still difficult to estimate how the cheese market will respond in general. Nevertheless, Hein Schumacher, the CEO of the dairy cooperative FrieslandCampina, identifies the developments as a point of concern. For the time being, cheese prices continue to look upwards. There is a lot of demand, especially for short-term delivery. The DCA foil cheese quotation for Gouda therefore increases by €0,05 to €2,98 per kilo. The price of Edam increases in the same order of magnitude to €2,93 per kilo.

This article is part of the subscription Boerenbusiness Milk & Feed Pro† In the coming period you can check the weekly cheese analysis of Boerenbusiness read for free for a limited time. 

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Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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