Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy cattle Index predicts stable period
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index rose sharply in October, but is now leveling off. The Index also foresees a stable period for the coming months, although the long-term average will probably not be tapped.
Between September and October, the Countus Dairy Index rose rapidly to 92,8 points, a plus of 6 points. Substantial steps have also been taken upwards in the past month. The Dairy Index rose by 4,2 points in October to 97 points, with 100 points being the long-term average. This means that the Index is still trading below average, which was not the case during this period last year; especially because the milk prices were higher during this period last year.
Lower costs, stable income
It is not surprising that the Dairy Index has risen so fast in recent weeks. Milk prices remained stable or increased further over the month of October. The fact that the long-term average is not achieved is partly because the milk prices of the various dairy processors are lower than in earlier years was the case.
On the cost side, the price movement is actually downward. So is the price of phosphate rights dropped further in the month of October and so did the feed prices were stable or down in the past month. All in all, it provides a (relatively speaking) positive return on most Dutch dairy farms.
Stable period expected
The Countus Dairy Index expects a stable period for the coming weeks. This is supported by several dairy processors the milk price increased last week. In addition, it is expected that feed prices will remain below the 5-year average for now, so that the costs for dairy farmers will be relatively low. A small side note is that the price of phosphate rights is starting to rise again, although the price is still well below last year's level.
Kimberly Baker
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