Analysis Countus Dairy Cattle Index
Dairy Cattle Index passes 10-year average
The Countus Dairy Cattle Index has passed the 10-year average for the month of November. However, a decrease is expected for the coming weeks, after which the Dairy Cattle Index will continue to fluctuate around to slightly below average.
Over the past month, the Countus Dairy Cattle Index has increased by approximately 3,7 points increased to 100,7 points, with 100 points being the long-term average. It is striking that last year in this period the Dairy Cattle Index was still well below the 10-year average, at 84 points. At that time, however, milk prices were lower, while costs especially straw and meadow hay were higher.
Balance between expenses and income
The fact that the Dairy Cattle Index is currently moving relatively stable is partly due to the fact that there is a balance between income and expenditure. Feed costs increased slightly in November; for example, the price of silage maize rose to a record high of €75 per tonne free farm and the price of meadow hay went up by €10. However, this is offset by slightly higher milk prices, including the milk prices of FrieslandCampina and Vreugdenhil.
The price of phosphate rights has also been stable for weeks, after an increase from week 42. Also some manure In terms of costs, the costs have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. In other words, although there are some visible increases on the cost side, this is reasonably offset by the higher revenues.
Stability ahead
Looking at the forecast for the Countus Dairy Cattle Index, it foresees a brief downward movement towards the end of the year. That decline is then followed by a long-term stable period, just below the 10-year average. This expectation is supported by the current balance of income and expenditure, which is expected to continue in the coming weeks. After all, there are no direct indications of higher income and/or higher costs.
Kimberly Baker
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