ABN Amro issues agricultural growth warning

The uncertainty about nitrogen and PFAS has a negative impact on the agricultural sector. Dairy farming is particularly affected, ABN Amro warns in a new report.

The bank expects that the nitrogen crisis (and the policy based on it) will lead to a rapid shrinkage of the dairy herd and the number of farms. Because of the still uncertain policy, it is difficult to make this contraction concrete, reports Nadia Menkveld, sector economist at ABN Amro. Animal numbers in pig farming will also decrease, although this was due to the planned warm remediation already calculated.

On balance, the bank expects an agricultural volume decline of 2020% for 0,5. According to Menkveld, this percentage is related to the production of the 'raw raw material', such as milk and potatoes. A contraction of 2021% is also expected for 0,5.

Build up to crisis
The contraction in construction is not lying. The bank expects the growth of 4% in 2019 to turn into a contraction of 2% next year. Industry and the transport sector are also expected to be affected by the nitrogen and PFAS crisis. The sectors that are not affected by this (eg the IT sector) can count on growth.

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is Head of Meat & Dairy at BoerenbusinessAt DCA Market Intelligence, he focuses on dairy, pork, and meat markets. He also monitors (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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